| stw - Donnerstag, 2. Oktober 2014 - 21:13 |
| Ich möchte hier einen bemerkenswerten Blog-Eintrag posten, der mir aus der Seele spricht. Sind die Manager in unseren deutschen Großkonzernen wirklich so dumm? :-) stw http://valueandopportunity.com/2014/10/01/performance-review-september-2014-comment-stupid-german-money/ Comment: “Stupid German Money” September was high time for German Corporations to announce large acquisitions in the US. In a short period of time, transactions were announced from Siemens, Merck Kgaa, SAP and privately held ZF group. This is a quick overview of the four deals: Target EV USDbn Buyer P/E Target P/E Buyer TRW 12,4 ZF 13,0 not listed Dresser Rand 7,3 Siemens 32,0 15,2 Sigma Aldrich 15,7 Merck 31,1 16,0 Concur 7,1 SAP 208,0 16,6 We can easily see that the multiples paid by the 3 listed entities are significantly higher than their own multiples. Large acquisitions are a big risk in any case, but in the case of German – US acquisitions the track record is particularly bad. Daimler/Chrysler is clearly the worst German-US deal ever, but there are loads of other value distracting US deals like Dresdner/Wasserstein, Siemens/Dade-Behring, RWE/American Water etc. There are a few good deals as well, but in my opinion the success rate is definitely below 50%. Why is this the case ? In my opinion, there are 3 major reasons for this: 1. German companies are normally very risk averse. So in “difficult” times, they keep their cash and wait until times get better. At some point in time when the good times are rolling (as they are now) they feel the urgent need to catch up with their international competitors and then buy into the boom which creates a very procyclical behaviour. 2. German companies often underestimate the cultural differences between Germany/Europe and the US. Many top managers might have been on vacation in the US or even studied there, but running an US company is very different from running a German company. Financial incentives are much more important in the US and often don’t fit with the rules here in Germany. So it is often almost impossible to keep the best people of a recently acquired company and without them, the business often deteriorates quickly. 3. In general. especially large German companies are just not good capital allocators. Buying back own shares is more often than not a no go and considered to be a sign of weakness. Equity is often thought as “Management’s equity” then “Shareholder’s Equity”. The term “shareholder’s equity” actually doesn’t exist in German language, “Eigenkapital” translates into “own funds” and I think most German managers consider it as their own funds and not the shareholder’s. As a result, the acquisition behaviour of German companies is almost always super procyclical and then looking back mostly looks pretty stupid and is value destroying for the German shareholders. As a private shareholder, my advice would be: Watch out !! - You don’t want to own the stock of a German company which acquires a big US company. Chances are high that they will regret it in a few years time – You don’t want to own the sector longer term they are investing in. This sector might be at or close to a cyclical peak – although I am not a market timer, you might be very cautious in general despite M&A induced further increasing share prices |
| al_sting - Donnerstag, 2. Oktober 2014 - 22:30 |
| Im Kern ein schöner Artikel. Auch wenn ich das spezifisch Deutsche am extrem prozyklischen Verhalten nicht so sehe. In den Hochphasen einer Konjunktur, wenn das Geld locker sitzt, das eigene Wachstum lahmt und das Management sich Umsatz und Wachstum dazukaufen will, finden sich eigentlich in jedem Land solche Verhaltensweisen, gerade bei börsennotierten Unternehmen ohne starken und das Management notfalls ausbremsenden Großaktionär (sprich Familienunternehmen). Dass die Mehrzahl der Übernahmen ökonomische Flops sind und dass bei grenzüberschreitenden Übernahmen noch verstärkte kulturelle Probleme auftreten, sind auch nichts Neues oder spezifisch Deutsches. Die Warnungen würde ich unterschreiben. Wenn das eigene Unternehmen jetzt Übernahmen berichtet, ist das ein guter Grund auszusteigen. Als Aktionär ist es eh meist rentabler, Aktien eines übernommenen Unternehmens zu besitzen. ;-) Ach ja, von verstärkten Aktienrückkäufen zu Höchstkursen halte ich auch wenig. Dann schon besser als Dividenden ausschütten... |
| al_sting - Donnerstag, 2. Oktober 2014 - 22:37 |
| PS: Ich schätze MMI, sein Blog und seine Unternehmensanalysen sehr! Auch wenn ich nicht alle seiner Ideen vorbehaltlos übernehmen würde, habe ich mich ziemlich intensiv aus seinen Ideen für das Musterdepot bedient. Um so mehr finde ich es beachtlich, dass MMIs Blog mit bislang 5% in unserem Musterdepotwettbewerb nicht gerade herausstechen würde. Auch die Besten liegen nicht immer richtig. ;-) |