| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 8. Februar 2002 - 14:48 |
| [siehe den 3. Abschnitt ! (den 4. würde ich nicht unbedingt unterschreiben.)] Dr. Georg Thilenius Risiken der dynamischen Entwicklung Alan Greenspan hat am Donnerstag einen wesentlichen optimistischen Ausblick gegeben als vor zwei Wochen. Hier stellt sich die Frage nach den risiken größerer wirtschaftlicher Dynamik. Ein Risiko der aggressiven Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik in USA ist, dass die Wirtschaft zunächst stärker und später dann langsamer wächst als in früheren Perioden eines Aufstiegs aus der Rezession. Hier werden wir jedoch erst zum Ende dieses Jahres näheres wissen. Es ist jedoch unwahrscheinlich, dass die Wirtschaft dann schnell, wie nach einem Strohfeuer, wieder in eine Rezession zurückfällt. Der Anleihemarkt folgt jedenfalls bisher dem klassischen Muster. Vom Niveau der niedrigsten langfristigen Zinsen bei 4,2% hat er auf jetzt 5% angezogen und signalisiert damit ebenfalls die stärkere Wirtschaftsaktivität. In den letzten vier Erholungsphasen gab es auch immer einen Zinsanstieg zum Ende einer Rezession oder früh in einer konjunkturellen Erholungsphase. Ein weiteres Risiko eines sehr starken Aufschwungs besteht natürlich in einer Erhöhung der Inflation und dann wieder höheren Zinsen. Die Fed und die anderen Zentralbanken werden jedoch kaum die Zinsen wieder erhöhen, bevor die Arbeitslosigkeit deutlich zurückgeht. In USA dürfte die Arbeitslosenrate mit 6,2% im ersten Quartal den Höchststand erreichen und für den Rest des Jahres etwa auf diesem Niveau bleiben. Erst ab 2003 kommt ein deutlicher Abbau der Arbeitslosigkeit in Sicht. In Zeiten hoher Arbeitslosigkeit ist jedoch nicht mit Zinserhöhungen zu rechnen, so dass jedenfalls für 2002 die Zinsen weltweit niedrig bleiben dürften. Das bedeutet für den Anleger, dass die langsam Aufwärtsentwicklung unter Schwankungen anhält und er investiert bleiben sollte. [Er ist ein Buy & Hold-Vertreter für Wachstumswerte.] Dr. Georg Thilenius 08.02.2002 http://nachrichten.boerse.de/anzeige.php3?id=311c8041 |
| j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 14. Februar 2002 - 15:03 |
| (Trotz aller Entlassungen: shop till you drop - auf den US-Konsumenten ist Verlaß ! :-) :) [da kann man Leerzeichen noch und nöcher eingeben - er kletscht die Satzzeichen auf das Emoticon...] Retail Sales Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-13-2002 10:07 ET Retail Sales for January are down 0.2% [!] (...). This follows an upward revised December number which now shows a 0.2% increase [!], after the preliminary 0.1% decline. In the month we had a decline in motor vehicle sales, that was expected, down 4.3% and this is the third straight monthly drop after the spike in October that occurred after the 0% financing came into place. So the standard figure to look at here is the non-auto sales, they were up 1.2% after a 0.7% rise in December, but that figure was revised upward substantially after the minus 0.1% previously reported. Another distorting element this month is in gasoline [!], station sales were up 5.0%, reflecting a price increase after the long string of declines we have had before. Without motor vehicle and gasoline sales [!!], retail sales increased 0.8% [!!!] in January after a 1.0% rise in December [!!], both are strong numbers showing good gains indicating that consumer spending is improving. That is the principal message to take out of this report. After going through the categories, it appears that most of them are up. Building materials and hardware sales were up 2.9%, furniture and home furnishings up 0.4%. There was a solid gain in general merchandise up 2.1% after a 1.0% rise in December (revised up from 0.5% originally). Food store sales up 0.4%, clothing and accessories up 2.5% (sales had been weak previously but now in the last couple months sales are better). Sporting goods, hobbies, books, and music up 0.8%, health and personal care (basically drug stores) up 2.3%. There were a few that were down, electronics and appliances down 3.6%, restaurants were down 0.2% although they had been up a lot in the prior month. Miscellaneous retailers down 0.8%. Most of the categories are up, particularly the important categories. Again when you remove motor vehicle and gasoline you have solid gains both months. We feel on balance these signs are quite encouraging for consumer spending, which holds most of the keys for demand over the next few quarters.(...) The bottom line is that consumer demand signs are encouraging, it doesn't change the fact that we are likely to have a weak first quarter in consumption, because we have that spurt in vehicle sales in the fourth quarter. The basic underlying trend in consumer demand is encouraging. |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 15. Februar 2002 - 02:43 |
| U.S. Jobless Claims Business Inventories Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-14-2002 10:12 ET Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance for the week ended February 9th were down 8,000 to 373,000, down from 381,000. The four-week average was down 5,500 [!] to 376,000 from 381,500, the prior week it was 386,000. What we are seeing is a downward trend [!], which is what we would expect at this time and what we hope for. These levels are close to where we feel there is job stabilization [!], around the 350,000 level. So in keeping with the expected recovery, these claims were close to expectations, they are moving in the right direction and they have now been down consistently for the past month. Business Inventories for December were down 0.4% [!], in-line with expectations, down 1.2% in November [!] and down 5.9% in October [!]. What we are seeing here is a continuation of the reduction in inventories, but at a slower pace. This is the eleventh month in a row that inventories have declined [!!!]. Broken p by sector: -Manufacturing was down 0.6% -Retailers down 0.1% -Wholesale Merchants down 0.6%. The Inventory-to-Sales Ratio is steady, the same as November - in again at 1.39; however, the Manufacturing ratio is down a bit now to 1.37 and it had been 1.39. However the Retailers, the larger number in this ratio, held steady. So again, this morning's reports are close to expectations. They reflect an economy that is in the midst of turning around. (...) |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 15. Februar 2002 - 02:45 |
| http://cdinf2.comdirect.de:9004/de/detail/_pages/news/article.html?sNewsId=1013594993&sid=&sNews=deutschland&sBackUrl=/de/detail/deutschland/main.html& finance online-Nachricht (Deutschland) Mittwoch, 13.02.2002, 11:09 Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammer: Schwache Wirtschaft 2002 Die Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammer gab am Mittwoch die Ergebnisse der Frühjahrsumfrage zur Konjunktursituation in Deutschland bekannt. Im Rahmen dieser Studie wurden mehr als 25.000 Unternehmen aus den Branchen Industrie, Dienstleistungen, Handel und Bauwirtschaft befragt. Demnach erwartet der Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammertag für dieses Jahr keinen schnellen und starken Wirtschaftsaufschwung. Es wird vielmehr mit einem schwachen Wirtschaftswachstum gerechnet. Laut DIHK-Hauptgeschäftsführer Martin Wansleben wird das Wachstum nicht mehr als 0,5 Prozent betragen. Erst im Jahresverlauf rechnet Wansleben mit einem kraftlosen Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaf. Der Aufschwung komme zwar 2002, aber er werde spät kommen und schwach sein. Weiter sagte Wansleben, dass es 2002 durchschnittlich mehr als vier Millionen Arbeitslose geben werde. Entsprechend stünden am Arbeitsmarkt die Zeichen daher auf weiteren Stellenabbau. Insgesamt gesehen sei die Stimmung in der deutschen Wirtschaft derzeit gedrückt. Die Investitionspläne der Firmen fielen noch schlechter aus als während der Rezession 1993. Der Binnennachfrage werde keine Kraft zugetraut, der Export sei wieder einziger Hoffnungsträger. Lediglich in der Industrie gebe es erste Anzeichen für eine Besserung der Lage. Dagegen habe die Bauwirtschaft immer noch nicht die Talsohle erreicht. ---------------- [Sieht recht wenig danach aus, als ob Deutschland als Investitionsland eine gute Idee wäre... Und das Wechselkursrisiko ? - nun, wenn der Aufschwung in den USA zuerst kommt: wie sich da wohl der Euro entwickeln wird...?] |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 15. Februar 2002 - 17:43 |
| Das Consumer Sentiment war etwas schwächer; aber das ist eh ziemlich belanglos (siehe Extra-Artikel unter "Börsen-Knowhow"). Consumer Sentiment Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-15-2002 11:26 ET The U. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 90.9 in the first half of February, down from 93 in January. Within the components, the current conditions component rose to 97.2 from 95.7. That component had been weak previously, so there is a little recovery there. The consumer expectations, which had most of the gain in recent months, fell back a little bit to 86.8 from 91.3. The reason the overall index is down is the expectations portion fell more than the current conditions rose. This is slightly negative news in the face of other signs that had been positive. Still, relative to where we were at the low point in September, all of these indices are substantially above that point. We have made a gain of about 9 points on the total index (13 points on the expectations portion and 2.5 points on the current conditions portion of the index). With all this said, I think the weight of the incoming evidence on the economy is clearly better and suggests that we are turning after the recession has run its course. I always say this about confidence indices, you would rather know what the consumer is doing rather than what they are saying [exakt !]. What they have been doing (in terms of retail and auto sales) is certainly encouraging. Also, employment conditions (as evidenced by employment insurance) is looking better as well. (...) |
| j_r_ewing - Samstag, 16. Februar 2002 - 00:28 |
| Industrieproduktion praktisch unverändert : ein Mosaiksteinchen mehr. Aber die sektorielle Verteilung ist interessant : die Techs fangen an aufzudrehen ! Industrial Production Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-15-2002 11:52 ET The Industrial Production report we feel is another sign that the industrial sectors decline is ending. While the decline is not over the declines are now very small. So the January Industrial Production is down 0.1% which is marginally better than December. In the manufacturing sector, activity was actually flat for the month. Consumer goods production is down 0.5%, there was a drop in motor vehicles and parts after gains in the two prior months. Business equipment which is capital goods was up 0.4 % - it had been down quite a bit before. High-tech production had an increase of 0.6%, it was flat in December, so high tech is beginning to look a little better. Computers within High-tech were up 1.1%, semis were up 1.5%, but communication equipment continues to be weak - down 2.5%. Material production was up 0.2%. This may be a sign that the inventory correction is finished. Utility production was down 0.7% and Mining was off 0.5%. The capacity utilization rate did decline a little further to 70.2% from 70.4% reflecting a small drop in production and a modest ongoing rise in capacity, although the rate of capacity growth has falling off substantially. Manufacturing utilization was down to 72.7% from 72.8%. So, what you see going on here is industrial production decline nearing its end and may be at its end. In our opinion we are seeing some encouraging signs in a number of sectors including overall manufacturing and high tech. And, the material productions suggest the inventory correction is winding down. So, overall an encouraging report and we feel the industrial sector's weakness is drawing to a close. |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 20. Februar 2002 - 15:24 |
| (Auch die Housing Starts waren okay :) Housing Starts Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-19-2002 10:29 ET (...) Housing starts came in strong at 1.68 million in January up 6.3% from December and is well ahead of expectations. We are at the highest level of housing starts since Feb of 2000. The gain was in both single family (up 3.5% to 1.345 million - the highly interest sensitive sector) and in multi-family housing ( up 8.3% to 287 thousand start rate). It is entirely possible that housing was helped by favorable weather. Building permit were up 3.1% to 1.71 million. (...) |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 20. Februar 2002 - 15:26 |
| Die Quartalsgewinne sind weit BESSER als erwartet: "Mit Blick auf die lang erwartete Aktienmarkterholung gibt die Erste Bank eine Bilanz bezüglich der Quartalsberichte aus dem S&P 500 Index: Damit haben bereits 432 von den 500 gelisteten Unternehmen ihre Quartalsberichte vorgelegt. - Die Gewinne gingen im Jahresvergleich um 24 Prozent zurück. - 57 Prozent der Unternehmen konnten nach den Analysten positiv überraschen; 18 Prozent konnten die Erwartungen der Analysten nicht erfüllen." http://cdinf2.comdirect.de:9004/de/detail/_pages/news/article.html?sNewsId=1014027296&sid=&sNews=default&sBackUrl=/de/detail/deutschland/main.html& |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 20. Februar 2002 - 16:11 |
| Die Halbleiterszene stabilisert sich weiter : siehe unter "Halbleitersektor". Gruß JR |
| prof_b - Mittwoch, 20. Februar 2002 - 20:52 |
| Dann können die Zinsen (fröhlich) weiter steigen: Welche Auswirkungen wird das wohl auf - den Aktienmarkt - die verschuldeten Konsumenten - den Immobilienmarkt haben? Schön, wenn man sich über die ersten Silberstreifen am Konjunkturhorizont freuen kann. Für mich noch kein Grund, in Standard- oder Technologierwerte zu investieren. Prof |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 20. Februar 2002 - 21:59 |
| Hab ich vielleicht gesagt, daß man es JETZT tun soll ?? |
| j_r_ewing - Samstag, 2. März 2002 - 04:28 |
| ...na, vielleicht wär' die Idee für Standardwerte gar nicht so schlecht gewesen - mir fiel zunehmend auf, wie sich der Dow vom bröckelnden Nasdaq zunehmend abkoppelte und sich stabil hielt. Heute zog aber auch der NAsdaq kräftig mit (kein Wunder, bei der Nachrichtenlage). Wenn man mit dem spitzen Bleistift zeichnet, ist der \ der letzten 3 Monate durchbrochen - das könnte, wenn nichts dazwischenkommt, eine größere Rally geben - eventuell sogar den endgültigen Dreh: dann wäre der Niedergang der letzten Wochen die 50%-Reaktion auf die erste Rally gewesen. Ich glaub, ich stell am Montag mal meine Puts glatt... Gruß JR |
| j_r_ewing - Samstag, 2. März 2002 - 04:31 |
| [Was es inzwischen an Volkswirtschaftlichem gab :] Leading Indicators Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-21-2002 11:36 ET The Leading Indicators index rose 0.6% [ ! ] in January. This series does not command a great deal of attention among economic forecasters, but it is a piece of evidence that the economy is beginning to do better. This follows a bigger rise in December [!] and this is the fourth consecutive monthly increase [ !!! ]. Among the components, six of them rose. There were three that were quite large including vendor performance from the Purchasing Managers Index, consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. There were three that had smaller increases, these were building permits, money supply and the shape of the treasury yield curve. There were four small decliners. These were the work week in manufacturing, consumer good orders, capital good orders and stock prices. Also, the coincidence indicator was unchanged in January and the lagging indicators were down .02%. So again, not a crucial piece of information, but a small corroborating sign that the economy is on the verge of doing better. --------------------------- Durable Goods Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-27-2002 10:50 ET [gute Zahlen, wohin man auch schaut :] Durable Goods for the month of January were up 2.6% [ ! ], this is a volatile series so it is difficult to predict the exact magnitude of the change. Our estimate was 0.5% to 1.0%, the consensus was 1.5%. One of the reasons why the number came in above expectations is December is revised to a smaller gain. The December number was 0.9% while the preliminary number had been 1.7% [ ! ]. The details of the report are generally positive, but you also get a sense that the pattern is somewhat mixed. A big gain occurred in transportation equipment, led by aircraft, we heard that Boeing (BA) had a big order and that may be one of the reasons this category did so well. So transportation equipment is up 5.9%, if we exclude this everything else was up 1.3%. Defense orders were down 2.7%, excluding this everything else was up 2.3% [ !!! ]. Non-defense capital goods were up 0.5%, but the prior month was revised downward, it was in positive category and is now negative. Of the individual industries six of them were up and one was down, electrical/electronic was down 5.0%. Computers and electronic equipment were up 2.2% [ !! ] (fourth consecutive monthly rise [ !!!! ]). Within this total computers were up 4.8% [ !! ], communications equipment was up 4.9% [ !!! kommt jetzt auch hier der Dreh ?], and semiconductors were up 14.2% (up 15.0% in the prior month) [ !!!!! ]. The other industries, primary metals were up 2.8%, non-electrical machinery rose 2.4%, we already mentioned transportation equipment, fabricated metals were up 1.4%, and the catch-all other durables were up 0.5%. Shipments were up 2.9% [ ! ] , that is a big gain. However, backlog (unfilled orders) were down 1.3% because the shipment rise exceeded the new orders increase [d.h. bei Auslieferungen +-0% wäre der Auftragsbestand -1,3% + 2,9% = +1,6% !] Inventories continue to fall, so the inventory correction at least in the durable goods area is still going on, inventories were down 0.6%. (...) ----------------------- New Home Sales/Greenspan's House Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-27-2002 14:40 ET [unkommentiert :] New Home Sales for January had a big drop, 14.8% down to 823,000 annual rate. Existing home sales on Monday had a gigantic spurt to an all-time record, of the two measures probably the most important is the existing home sales giving a truer indication of the housing market [ ?? ]. These new home sales are more volatile. The December new home sales were revised up to 966,000 from 946,000 and November was revised up to 938,000 from 895,000. Given the generally favorable housing signs that are out there we do not feel that this is a significant change. We still feel the basic story in housing is that housing is strong. [die Baugenehmigungen waren gut; s.o.] Based on what we have seen in regard to the Greenspan testimony (headlines and a few statements), on balance its seems to be constructive news. It both reflects the prospect for economic recovery in his view, as well as, enough attention to downside risks and remaining problems. But clearly the Fed will not to be quick to tighten in this environment. So the fear that we might be looking for Fed tightening soon, has diminished. The positive signs on the general economy, according to Greenspan, are that the typical dynamics of the business cycle have reemerged prompting a firming in economic activity. So he is basically saying that the economy is turning up. He particularly mentioned inventory as the main source of the initial rebound, that inventories have been pushed down so far that companies will counteract that giving the economy an immediate lift. The debt levels were not an impediment to economic growth, this is an important piece of reassurance for markets. On the other side, Greenspan did indicate that there are a number of instances that will likely keep the pace of recovery moderate by historical standards. That is we won't get a rapid recovery. He sites that the level of jobless rates will curb consumer spending growth, we feel that is reasonable. He expects only a gradual rebound in capital spending, we don't disagree, but we feel capital spending will improve and that is something that the market has not been completely assured about. As a side note on that one though, he did say that high tech investment recovery may have already begun. As of this morning we have had four months in a row where computer and related product orders are up, so we feel the pessimism about spending (not about the stocks) probably got overdone. He went onto mention that the lack of pricing power was striking, which hurts nominal profits and could feed back into capital spending. He also sited weakness abroad as well as in financial markets. So there are some inhibitors to growth out there. But the message that the economy is doing better is the dominant story here. He did mention that inflation pressures are well contained, which is another reason for the Fed not to be quick to do any tightening. Another point that we have been mentioning is that profits will be helped by the labor cost restraint and pick-up in productivity, and we feel that will be where we get our profits growth from. Costs will be very well contained, so even if there isn't much pricing power we can still get some profit increases. On the Fed's forecast for 2002, they have GDP growth at 2.5% to 3.0%, our estimate is 3.5%. But on their price index they are using a personal consumption price index at up 1.5%, we feel that is a reasonable price rise. As for the unemployment rate getting up to 6.0% to 6.25%, that looks about right to us, we may be a touch more optimistic. Again, we will look through more details here to see what he is talking about, but on balance it was expected that he had mostly good news with some cautions. (...) ---------------- US Jobless Claims/GDP Revision Dick Rippe, Managing Director 02-28-2002 09:53 ET Initial Claims for Unemployment for the week ended February 23rd came in at 378,000, and the prior week was revised down to 361,000 from the preliminary 383,000. We did have a rise in the latest week of 17,000, but the prior week was lowered substantially so it changes the pattern. The four-week average [der weniger schwankt] was down to 373,250 and that is a drop of 3,000 [ ! ]. It is the lowest level on this average since August 11, 2001. Claims have been falling consistently since late September or early October when they reached their peaks [ !!! ]. They have now fallen into a zone that we think falls in line with stable employment. The unemployment rate may rise some more as the labor force keeps growing, but we are getting into a zone where it looks like the job losses are diminishing substantially. [unkommentiert :] The GDP revision is upward, but it is more of an upward revision than expected. So GDP for the fourth quarter comes in at a 1.4% growth rate [ !!!! ], the estimate one month ago was 0.2% growth. As a result of this, we have completely recovered the third quarter decline, down at a 1.3% annual rate. The price indices are also very moderate. The index they focus on is gross domestic purchases which was up 0.4% (preliminary estimate was 0.8%), and the consumption price index was up 0.7% (preliminary estimate was up 0.8%). These are very minimal amounts of inflation. The revision in real GDP came in three categories; consumer spending up 6.0% (preliminary estimate was 5.4%), government spending rose 10.1% (preliminary estimate was 9.2%) and net exports down $418 billion (preliminary estimate was $433 billion). The upward revision largely came on the import side. Business investment was down 13.1% (preliminary estimate was 12.8%), and housing was down 5.0%. Final sales to domestic purchasers, domestically generated demand in the economy, grew at a 3.9% annual rate (preliminary estimate was 3.2%) so the upward revision to consumption and government spending says we had a solid demand quarter. So overall final sales (final sales to domestic purchases plus net exports) was up 3.6% (preliminary estimate was 2.5%). There was little change in inventory, as we liquidated inventories at a $120 billion annual rate (preliminary estimate was $120.6 billion.) In the first quarter the economy will benefit from a turn in the inventory cycle, but final demand will not be as strong as it was in the fourth quarter. These figures emphasize that the economy had a very mild downturn, it looks as though we are beginning an upturn, and these figures will make that point even more clearly. ------------------- Personal Income Above Expectations Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-01-2002 11:30 ET Personal Income for January was up 4.0% [ ! ], that is above expectations, it is the largest rise since July. Because of tax cuts and some other provisions that kick in this time of year disposable income (after tax income) rose by 1.6%. That is a very big monthly increase. After taking out these special provisions that hit, it was only up 0.2% [ !!!, trotz aller Entlassungen !! ], but it is still an impressive performance. Personal consumption expenditures for January were up 0.4% [ ! ], again that is at or above expectations. It is true that durable goods were down reflecting the trailing off of auto sales even though they remain pretty good. Durables were down 2.1%, but that was offset by increases in nondurables of 1.2%, and in services of 0.5%. So overall consumption managed to rise 0.4%, again a good increase. Since prices were only up 0.1% [ ! ], in real terms consumption was up 0.3% [ !!! ] a very good reading given we were strong in the fourth quarter. There was also upward revision to the December figure that was reflected in yesterday's fourth quarter GDP number. Consumption was flat [ ! ] in December, it had originally been estimated to be down 0.2%. So the January rise on top of an upward revised December number is again a pretty strong performance. The savings rate is 1.8% of income [ ! ], it is very low, but is up from where it was in December. The price index for personal consumption (the index the Fed is watching) is only up 0.1%. (...) ------------------------ NAPM Index Stronger Than Expected Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-01-2002 12:17 ET The National Purchasing Managers Index (NAPM) for February came in at 54.7 [ !!!!!], which is the first reading over 50 since July of 2000. Now this is a sign that the industrial sector has returned to the positive side. This is above expectations although they probably would have been adjusted upward after Chicago, which came out yesterday. Our estimate was 50.5 to 51.5 and the consensus was 50.9, so this comes in above expectations. January had been 49.9, and the signal in the last couple months was that things were getting better, but this is sort of a breakthough month where you get back on the positive track [50 ist der neutrale Wert !]. Among the components the message is pretty favorable as well. Production got to 61.2 [ !!!! ] (January was 52.0 [ !! ]), new orders were 62.8 [ !!!!! ] (January was 55.3 [ !!! ]), the subcategory of export orders was 51.5 (January was 50.8). Inventories are still falling--they were 39.5 [ !!! ] (January was 40.5), employment came in at 43.8 (January was 42.6). The supplier delivery index, which is a measure of lead times, rose above 50, meaning that lead times are lengthening [!!] as business builds up, so it is 52.3 [ !! ] (January was 51.7 [ !! ]). The price report is favorable compared with what showed up in the Chicago index. The price measure here of 41.5 indicates declining prices continue, which is actually a little more negative than the 43.9 of January. ["price follows volume" !] The other report out is Construction Spending for January, up 1.5% [ ! ]. Our estimate was flat to 0.5% versus December up 0.5% (an upward revision from the preliminary 0.2%). This is the largest gain in a year and it was helped by mild weather, in our opinion. One of the reasons we thought the gain would be less is that employment in construction in January had fallen quite a bit, so this is a little bit of a surprise to see it rising with employment in the industry falling. Among the components: residential construction up 0.1%; nonresidential construction up 2.2% (but that is plagued with excess capacity); public construction continues to be very strong up 3.7% after a 2.9% rise in December. |
| j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 7. März 2002 - 01:43 |
| NAPM Index Stronger Than Expected Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-01-2002 12:17 ET The National Purchasing Managers Index (NAPM) for February came in at 54.7 [ !!!!!], which is the first reading over 50 since July of 2000. Now this is a sign that the industrial sector has returned to the positive side. This is above expectations although they probably would have been adjusted upward after Chicago, which came out yesterday. Our estimate was 50.5 to 51.5 and the consensus was 50.9, so this comes in above expectations. January had been 49.9, and the signal in the last couple months was that things were getting better, but this is sort of a breakthough month where you get back on the positive track [50 ist der neutrale Wert !]. Among the components the message is pretty favorable as well. Production got to 61.2 [ !!!! ] (January was 52.0 [ !! ]), new orders were 62.8 [ !!!!! ] (January was 55.3 [ !!! ]), the subcategory of export orders was 51.5 (January was 50.8). Inventories are still falling--they were 39.5 [ !!! ] (January was 40.5), employment came in at 43.8 (January was 42.6). The supplier delivery index, which is a measure of lead times, rose above 50, meaning that lead times are lengthening [!!] as business builds up, so it is 52.3 [ !! ] (January was 51.7 [ !! ]). The price report is favorable compared with what showed up in the Chicago index. The price measure here of 41.5 indicates declining prices continue, which is actually a little more negative than the 43.9 of January. ["price follows volume" !] The other report out is Construction Spending for January, up 1.5% [ ! ]. Our estimate was flat to 0.5% versus December up 0.5% (an upward revision from the preliminary 0.2%). This is the largest gain in a year and it was helped by mild weather, in our opinion. One of the reasons we thought the gain would be less is that employment in construction in January had fallen quite a bit, so this is a little bit of a surprise to see it rising with employment in the industry falling. Among the components: residential construction up 0.1%; nonresidential construction up 2.2% (but that is plagued with excess capacity); public construction continues to be very strong up 3.7% after a 2.9% rise in December. The fact that construction has held together during a time of economic weakness has been an important source of support for the economy. ----------------------------- Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-05-2002 11:26 ET The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 58.7 [ !!!! ], up from 49.6 in January. This is the highest reading since November of 2000 [ !! ]. So the non-manufacturing part of the economy is clearly in the positive territory where 50.0 is neutral. New orders are up to 57.3 [ !!!! ] versus 49.4 in January. The backlog of orders is still declining but not by as much, coming in at 47.5 up from 45.5. We had gains in export orders, 52.5 versus 56.5, and inventories turned positive (it is not a very inventory-sensitive part of the economy) but it came in at 51.5 up from 47.5. However, the inventory sentiment number (whether inventories are too high or not) moved up to 66.5 from 64.5, so a few more are saying inventories are too high. [Den Lager-Dreh kann man also noch nicht als Erfolg sehen.] The price components came in at 50.0, up from 49.0, so prices about flat net, but they have been declining before. Employment continues to fall, now 43.6 [ !! ] down from 44.5, so that would say don't look for anything big in manufacturing employment when we get the February numbers on Friday. [Auch in diesem Sektor also gute Zahlen bei niedriger BEschäftigung --> gute Margen !! (bei unverändert gutem Konsum !)] Finally, supplier deliveries showed some slowing of deliveries as the index came in at 53.0, the same as the prior month. The main message here is that the overall index is well into the positive zone at 58.7. Most importantly, it was propelled there by new orders, which came in at 57.3. - In another report out this morning, one that we do not usually mention, the Challenger Gray and Christmas consulting firm reported that announced job cuts in February were down 40.0% from January [ !!! ]. That doesn't tell you the whole story about the labor market but a move of that much is a sign again that the labor market is looking a little better. [Es tut sich was ! Wenn sich das nächsten Monat bestätigt, bahnt sich auch hier Aufhellung an ! Verfolgen !] ------------------------------- Factory Orders In Line With Expectations Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-06-2002 12:14 ET The increase in Factory Orders was not a surprise, as it is in line with expectations, and is another sign that the manufacturing sector is turning for the better. Manufacturing Orders were up 1.6% [ !! ] in January (we estimated 1.5-1.8% and consensus was 1.5%). It follows the better Purchasing Managers report for manufacturing that was out last week. Excluding the highly volatile transportation equipment measure, it was still up 1.2%. Excluding defense, it was up 1.7% [ !!! ]. These are good size gains and suggest that the manufacturing business is picking up. [Ein Wermuthstropfen:] The one thing that is slightly negative is Non Defense Capital Good Orders, which were down 0.6% [ ! ]. When they were originally released in the Durable Goods report last week, they were up 0.5%. That part is still a little weak. I am not backing off the view that capital spending will turn for the better soon, but we don't have orders momentum here. One positive sign continues to be computers and electronic products, which were up 1.9% in January (the fourth month in a row) [siehe letztens]. Most of the individual industries they show had increases in orders, too. Shipments were up 2% [ !! ], which is big gain. That large gain combined with the smaller overall gain in Orders caused a decline in unfilled orders, which fell 1.4% [unschön !]. The backlog is not very robust. Inventories dropped another 0.6% [ ! ], so the inventory correction continues to proceed. Bottom line: this is good news as manufacturing is beginning to do better. It is not booming, but the signs are definitely improving. Langsam wird's langweilig. Ich überlege, ob ich das noch so weiter mache. Gruß JR |
| j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 7. März 2002 - 03:51 |
| Zur Schulden-Diskussion : ...schrieb der recht bekannte Edwward Keon in "Ivestor Weekly" vom 20.2. : (Haben die Amis nicht gerade einen Konsum-Exzess ?) "Konsumausgaben ohne Essen und Energie waren Ende Novemver +3,6% p.a. In einem anderen Artikel zeigten wir, daß das unüblich, aber nicht einmalig viel war: In den Rezessionen seit 1960 stiegen sie um 0,6% im Schnitt, aber in der Rezession 1981/82 um 4%. In jedem Fall zogen die Ausgaben in der Erholung an: im Schnitt 5,5%; 1982 um 7,2 %." (Verarmen sie dabei nicht zusehends ?) "Vor Wochen legten wir dar - gemäß unserer Analyse der 'Flow of Funds'-Daten der FED -, daß, entgegen der Meinung der Pessimisten, die US-Privathaushalte-Budgets insgesamt, in guter Verfassung sind. Ihre Schulden sind in den letzten paar Jahren sehr wohl gestiegen, aber ihre tangible assets um das Doppelte. Die Schulden bestehen zu 70% aus Hypotheken, die tangible assets zu 80% aus Immobilien. Unterm Strich haben die Konsumenten einfach so viel equity von ihren Heimen abgezogen, daß ihr Netto-Immobilienbesitz prozentual genau so hoch ist wie 1995, d.h. 55,7% (lt. FED). Wir schätzen, der Netto-Besitz aller Haushalte betrug Ende 2001 ca. 40 "trillion" (= Billionen) $, 10% mehr als 1998 und ca. 40% mehr als 1995." (Ja, aber wie setzt er sich zusammen ?) "Wir schätzen: Ende 2001 betrugen die tangible assets knapp über 34% der Haushalts-assets (langjähriger Durchschnitt. 35 %)". (Und die Immobilienpreise ??) Keon: Die über 65jährigen besitzen etwa 30 % des Nettobesitzes im Land; von ihnen sterben jährlich 5,1% [Jüngere sind gar nicht mitgerechnet]. Ca. 70 % des Erbes geht an jüngere Leute. Diese geben deutich mehr von ihrem BEsitz aus als die Erblasser; vor allem für Immobilien. Von daher hat man auf Grund demographischer Entwicklung eine stetig höhere Nachfrage nach Immobilien. Auch erklärt dies zum Teil den anhaltend hohen Konsum. - [Was ebenfalls preistreibend wirkt: Ähnlich wie hier, steigt die Zahl der Haushalte durch die steigende Zahl sich abspaltender Single-Haushalte. Außerdem steigt der Wohnflläche pro Kopf: was heute ein Single für sich allein beansprucht, darauf lebte früher eine ganze Familie. Dies alles wirkt der konjunkturverursachten Preisabschwächungstendenz entgengen.] [Weiterhin gebe ich zu bedenken: Was man auch nicht vergessen darf: In der Phase der Niedrigzinses haben die US-Verbraucher massenhaft ihre laufenden Hypotheken zins-angepaßt (was drüben leicht geht). Die laufenden Schuldzinslasten durch Hypotheken sind also drastisch verringert; dadurch entsprechend erhöht das Netto-Einkommen. Und wenn ich mich recht erinnere, leben die Amis sehr viel mehr in eigenen Immobilien als die Deutschen. Auch dies erklärt zum Teil, warum Konsum-Umsätze und Zahlungskraft trotz aller Entlassungen einfach nicht in die Knie gehen wollen.] Howdy JR |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 8. März 2002 - 04:53 |
| (Und weiter :) Beige Book Is On Balance Positive News Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-06-2002 17:36 ET (...) The summary statement is that most areas of the country saw improvement in January and early February [ ! ]. More specifically, seven of the 12 districts say the economy is picking up. Three reported weak activity and would probably be consistent with continuing decline. One said things were little changed and one reported mixed signals. [also 7 : 3 !! ] On an individual sector basis they noted modest gains in Retail sales in eight of the 12 districts [ ! ], manufacturing was still generally weak [noch], and factory layoffs did not seem to be as severe as before [ ! ]. In the Real Estate segment housing was strong, but the commercial side was weak. In the labor markets there was still considerable slack [ ! ], but the one positive sign they noted was that temporary employment firms said employment was bottoming [ !! ]. Finally, on wages and prices the story was subdued. Wage and price increases to largely nonexistent wage price increases. They noted particularly in wages the majority of sectors had pointed to frozen wages and suspended bonuses in some cases. --------------------------------- Initial Claims for Unemployment Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-07-2002 10:41 ET Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance came down slightly by 5,000 to 376,000 for the week ended March 7th. The prior week is revised upward to 381,000 but basically this is in a good zone. The four-week average is down to 372,750 down 1,250 [ ! ] and this is the lowest reading on this average since the week of August 11th [ ! ] . There was also a drop in continuing claims, down 61,000 [ ! ]. So the favorable trend in claims continues, it is a positive sign for the economy and good news for the consumer because employment and income are the key determinants of what the consumer does. We feel that the level we are now down to is consistent with a level of job stability. We get the National Unemployment report tomorrow and we think we will get something closer to stability, but that remains to be seen. There was an upward revision to productivity for the fourth quarter, a little more than expected. The productivity change for non-farm business in the fourth quarter came in at a 5.2% [ !!! ] annual rate, which is huge. Our estimate was 4.5% to 5.0%, while the consensus was about 4.5%. The preliminary figure was a 3.5% rise, which was huge already, and now it has been revised upward. The prior quarter had a 1.1% [ ! ] productivity gain. So when you combine the productivity with compensation (wages, salaries, and benefits) they were up at a 2.3% annual rate (unchanged from the preliminary number). Unit labor cost fell at a 2.7% [ !!!! ] annual rate, and this is a significant decline, lower than the preliminary number, which came in at a 1.1% drop. So the story here again is that productivity is doing amazingly well. These figures are almost unbelievably good so we may not be able to expect them to last. The quarter-to-quarter changes in productivity are very volatile [ !! ], but the fact that they have continued to do well during a weak time for the economy is pretty good evidence that something has changed for the better in the productivity trend and that is what will matter for the long run. In the short run these good productivity numbers should help corporate profits by keeping costs very well subdued. ----------------------------------- Greenspan's Testimony Dick Rippe, Managing Director 03-07-2002 11:45 ET We have been listening in to Greenspan's semi-annual report to Congress, and there is indeed new news in it. Usually he doesn't change his statement, between the two phases of the testimony that is, but every now and then there has been enough time that elapses that he does change it. This time there have been events that have occurred. So he is giving a much more upbeat view of the economy, at least in the initial headlines, than he did a week ago. One sof the things he is saying is that the U.S. expansion is "well under way." [ !! ] That is quite a bit stronger than what he said a week ago. Nonetheless, he still expects it to be moderate by historical standards [ !! ], but the doubts about whether a recovery is happening have been erased by the new economic indicators that are coming out [ !!!! ]. He indicates that final demand is strengthening [ !! ], and that is really the key to sustainable growth over a period of time. On the downside he still states business investment is likely to be weak, that the recovery there will be gradual. We don't doubt that, but we think the recovery is going to occur fairly soon. He mentioned in business investment the weakness in the communication sector [ ! ] and in aircraft [ ! ], and those are clearly going to be among the weak areas. But we have seen some signs that things are better in areas such as computers [ ! ], computer orders, and also heavy truck [ ! ] orders and a number of items we discussed on our latest "Capital Spending Update" piece. The labor market is also expected to lag, but that is normal, nothing unusual there [ !!!! ]. ------------------------------------ Same-Store Sales: : The February same-store sales results were released this morning, and in typical fashion, there wasn't a great deal of continuity across the retail spectrum. One thing, however, was made crystal clear-- the broadline, value-oriented retailers remain a hotbed of consumer activity. To wit, same-store sales at Wal-Mart (WMT), Kohl's (KSS), J.C. Penney (JCP) and Target (TGT) were up 10.3%, 14.4%, 12.5% and 8.5%, respectively. Conversely, their more traditional department store brethren had a tougher time attracting consumers as evidenced by the fact that the likes of May Co. (MAY), Dillard's (DDS), Saks (SKS) and Federated (FD) all had negative same-store sales comparisons. The gaping disparity is no coincidence, though, as the discount retailers hold a decisive edge in trying economic times with their value-oriented approach. Furthermore, they have gained an added edge by creating a more inviting shopping environment that stands out against the normally staid environs of the traditional department stores. The impact of the discounters, though, hasn't been limited solely to the department stores. Specialty retailers, particularly apparel companies, are also feeling the pinch from their competitive influence as they have been able to leverage their size to attract higher-quality vendors. Accordingly, the specialty retailers have been engaged in aggressive promotional activity for some time now in an effort to clear excess inventories and to maintain brand equity in the minds of consumers. Some have been more successful than others in that respect, but overall, the Feb. same-store sales results in that segment didn't exactly paint a picture of strength. With many specialty retailers in a much better inventory position heading into Spring, that should change in due time as consumers, bolstered by the prospects for a strong economic recovery, curb their penchant for value-oriented merchandise. Hopefully, then, there will be greater continuity in next month's same-store sales results as that would be an encouraging indication that the consumer is literally buying into the idea that the economy is poised for a strong recovery.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com 17:45 ET Thursday After Hours: price changes vs 4pm ET levels: In its mid-quarter update, Intel (INTC 32.35 -0.63) tightened its Q1 revenue expectations from a range of $6.4-7.0 bln to $6.6-6.9 bln. The chip giant also indicated that its microprocessor business continues to follow seasonal patterns and that gross margin percentage is expected to be within its prior expectation of 50%, plus or minus a couple of points, but above the midpoint of the range.. |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 8. März 2002 - 05:00 |
| (Zu den Kreditausfällen :) Thomas Weisel on Credit Cards : -- Before Open -- Thomas Weisel believes the moderating number of bankruptcy filings (up 10% in Feb, representing a meaningful deceleration from 18% y/y increase experienced in the Dec qtr), one of leading indicators of credit losses, should help the quality of Mar qtr earnings at credit card issuers. (...) |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 8. März 2002 - 16:18 |
| Die Arbeitszahlen bessern sich : 08:55 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] The pre-market tone remains strong following the stronger than expected February Employment Report. (...) Getting into the details of the employment report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 66K in the aggregate. [ ! ] Manufacturing payrolls decreased by 50K which is half the size of the January decline [ ! ] while service producing payrolls rose 97K. Note that government accounted for only 20K of the service increase [ ! ] as retail payrolls jumped 58K. The 34.1 hour workweek is unchanged from the revised lengths of the prior three months as the upturn in demand surprisingly hasn't altered what is usually the first indicator of increased activity. The manufacturing workweek rose to 40.7 hours as overtime held at 3.9 hours. 08:35 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] The results of the February Employment Report were stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose 66K versus the consensus expectation of unchanged. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell a tenth of one point to 5.5% versus a consensus estimate of 5.8%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours which was in line with the consensus view. All in all, this report was stronger than expected and should have a favorable impact on the markets. |
| stephan - Freitag, 8. März 2002 - 19:53 |
| Ich sehe keine Fantasie für einen großen Aufschwung an den Börsen - Die Luft wird dünner Schön das die Zahlen jetzt besser werden. Gut für die Volkswirtschaft und die Bürger - Schlecht für die Börse! So langsam könnten dann die Zinsen wieder steigen, die Börse wird dann bestenfalls seitwärts tendieren - Naja die Märkte sind ja auch schon gut bewertet. Seid Ihr jetzt wieder Bullish? |
| j_r_ewing - Samstag, 9. März 2002 - 09:19 |
| Ich - man ahnt es - schon. Die Wirtschaft erholt sich sichtlich. Da ist es nicht unpassend, daß die Kurse steigen. Daß die Zinsen wieder ansteigen, ist unvermeidlicher Teil selbst eines best case-Szenarios - keine Belebung ohne vermehrte Kreditnachfrage. (Ich schätze, daß die FED so in ca. 2 Monaten wieder etwas anzieht; vielleicht wg. des hochgehievten Ölpreises schon etwas früher. - Das heißt aber nicht notwendig, daß dann regelmäßig weiter erhöht wird; gut möglich ist, daß erst mal die "11. September-Zusatz-Absenkung" zurückgeführt wird und die zyklische Komponente noch etwas bleibt.) (Die ungünstige Variante ginge so: die Inflation bricht aus, OHNE daß die Wirtschaft sich bessert.) Und börsentechnisch scheint das ganz gut zu laufen. Liquidität ist m.W. noch einige da. Der ausgebrochene Optimismus hat sich wieder etwas gelegt; von daher ist noch Luft. Momentan sind sie zwar bewertungsmäßig schon etwas weggelaufen; aber die Börse nimmt halt vorweg. Die Enronitis scheint mir auch wieder abzuebben. Sogar die japan. Abzüge (Yen/$ !) fürs Window-Dressing zum Ende des jap. Rechnungsjahres scheinen nicht durchzuschlagen. Bush scheint die Schurkenstaaten jetzt ja mehr auf der Zoll-Ebene bekämpfen zu wollen - vielleicht wird das US-Adrenalin ja durch diesen Ausgang entsorgt und der Irak doch noch nicht plattgemacht (oder erst in Sicherheit gewiegt ?) Vielleicht kommt hier das saisonale Muster "Frühjahrsrally" durch, so daß es auf "sell in May and go away" rausliefe... (Daß irgendwann mal wieder ein Rückschlag kommt, ist klar - Ausschüttelungen gehören mit zum "Spiel". 2002 dürfte noch mal ein ziemlich wechselhaftes Jahr werden !) Wenn jetzt nicht z.B. die Golden Gate Bridge, durch Schiff oder Auto, in die Luft fliegt, oder die Maul- und Klauenseuche ausbricht... Gruß JR |