| mib - Mittwoch, 25. April 2001 - 03:09 |
| Today is April 24, 2001 Weighing In on Ireland By Vivian Lewis 04/24/2001 03:25 PM EST Our reasons for investing in Ireland are that there will be a huge increase in the MSCI EAFE (Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe-America-Far East) index and its component indexes by next May. Readers asked me the basis for our selection of Irish investments to benefit from the shift in the MSCI indexes in two steps to May 2003. It was more a process of elimination. About $4 trillion of funds are benchmarked to MSCI indexes. The change will be to free-float indexation rather than capitalization-weighting. What this means is that if other companies, governments, controlling shareholders, families, or even management own a company's shares, this will reduce its EAFE weighting. The free-float is less than the total capitalization of a stock. While most of the impact will be negative -- for example, slashing the float weighting of Deutsche Telekom (DT) and many Asian stocks -- it will increase the weighting of other companies whose shares are freely accessible. The new system will boost Greece, Israel, Korea and Taiwan, as well as the US and Canada. But no country's shares will be boosted as much as Ireland's. Ireland's global weighting will rise a whopping 72% when MSCI makes its changes. Emerald Isle Picks I cannot honestly recommend Elan (ELN), a high-flying Irish drug developer, because its actions are those of stock promoters rather than drug researchers. Any company in its business is desperate to raise money to finance the "burn rate," but Elan is just too slick with new options, affiliates, and takeovers. Baltimore Technology (BALT) was just too difficult to get a handle on. I need to know what a tech firm is doing, who its rivals are, why it is unique and a compelling buy. This was not available here. With Jefferson Smurfit (JS) I had another problem. Many years ago, when I was a freelance journalist in Paris, I wrote articles for a magazine the paper company owned, called Vision. The magazine went bust owing me for 18 months worth of articles (they had always been slllooooooooow payers), and when my union tried to get what was due me, they essentially told us that we had no recourse except suing in Ireland. The magazine was subsequently sold to the Deutsche Boerse, so they got something for my work. Of course, I would not like to be a shareholder in an outfit that does not pay its bills. I really like CRH (CRHCY), the aggregates business, but it is very pricey and very concentrated in the US. If the price drops, I would buy it. Sweet Choices Our Irish selections include Irish Investment Fund (IRL). Its savvy manager Ciaran Spillane is smart enough to figure out which Irish stocks the MSCI mob will be buying, before hand. He works for Bank of Ireland Asset Management, which runs the fund out of Dublin. We also recommend Allied Irish Bank (AIB), a major player in Ireland, with interests as well in the US, the UK and elsewhere. It is very profitable and fast-growing. Earnings per share for 2000 at 104 euros were up 15% before goodwill and exceptional items. Ireland accounted for only 44% of profits, with Britain second. It also has a profitable bank in another Catholic country at the edge of Europe, Poland. And even for those who can resist supermarket sweets, we recommend Hibernia Foods (HIBNY), the European licensee of Entenmanns bakery. It is big on desserts and prepared foods in Ireland, Britain, and to a lesser extent in other European countries. It will benefit from the switch to carryout and mass retailing in Europe. Of course, I wish this would not happen, but I think it is inevitable. Last year Hibernia restructured its assets and made major investments in other purveyors of disgusting calorie-laden desserts. It closed 2000 with revenue up 40% to 90.01 million Irish punts ($109.41 million) but chalked up an operating loss of 2.61 million punts -- 20% wider than the year before. The blame was put on set-up charges to create a new facility and hire people, and Hibernia expects to be in the black this year. Israel Could Also Be a Heavyweight We are also overweight in Israel, another accessible market expected to be more heavily weighted in the new MSCI. You have to understand what happens to institutional investors when MSCI makes changes in the indexes. They really ought to wait till the new weightings are announced (starting this Nov. 30), and then buy and sell shares in a hurry to match the benchmark. Of course, if all the elephants move in the same direction at once, it means that there will be serious perturbations on the market. So in fact most institutions are doing what I think Spillane is doing: anticipating the MSCI changes. This introduces tracking error in the interval until the changes are announced (and perhaps afterwards, since nobody knows exactly what MSCI will be telling us). That means the performance of portfolio managers may do better than the index (or worse), but will not track it very well. Vivian Lewis edits Global Investing, a newsletter for those seeking to diversify their portfolios without leaving Wall Street or their regular brokers. It covers American Depositary Receipts, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds, Yankee bonds, and other US instruments for investing outside the US. To see a sample copy, or to subscribe for only $99 on the Internet, visit global-investing.com. |
| levdul1 - Montag, 16. November 2015 - 14:12 |
| Hallo Xenon, Ich hoffe, daß du das hier liest. Mir ist beim Speichern der Axel Retz Newsletter vom Samstag kaputt gegangen. Leider hatte ich Ihn auch aus der Mailbox und aus den gelöschten Dateien entfernt. Ich würde Ihn aber sehr gerne lesen (besonders aufgrund der Ereignisse in Paris). Könntest du Ihn bitte an: levdul@gmx.de schicken ? Danke im voraus. |
| xenon - Dienstag, 17. November 2015 - 06:26 |
| Ist geschehen. Axel Retz hat die langjährige Zusammenarbeit mit Börse online aufgekündigt, nachdem zunehmend Kritik an seinen politischen Inhalten aufkam und z.T. Artikel nicht mehr abrufbar waren. Sicherlich sind seine politischen Statements für einen Börsenbrief übergewichtet, z.T. politisch "nicht korrekt", aber das ist Teil der Meinungsfreiheit wie ich denke. Der Erfolg seiner Anlageempfehlungen bezüglich der Aktienmärkte ist zumindest kritisch zu sehen (meist fallende Kurse prophezeit - für die DAX 7.000 noch dieses Jahr wird es langsam eng :-), bei Rohstoffen liegt er schon besser. Robert Halver als b.o. Kolumnist sieht die politisch-ökonomischen Probleme sehr ähnlich - kommt aber zu ganz anderen Schlüssen (DAX > 11.000 am Jahresende) und formuliert ausgewogener. Axel wird auf jeden Fall seine Fans behalten. Xenon |
| levdul1 - Dienstag, 17. November 2015 - 13:05 |
| Danke. Ich kann Axel Retz schon einordnen, etwas schräg unterwegs aber doch recht amüsant zu lesen. Es ist immer gut nicht nur eine Sicht auf die Dinge zu haben. Und mit einigen seiner Empfehlungen liegt er derzeit auch richtig (Öl-short, E.on short, etc.) Da ich nicht viel Zeit zum Internet-Lesen habe, hat sich mein 'Aktualisieren' auf das Lesen von 2 Kolumnen reduziert: Ken Fisher und Axel Retz - Engelchen und Teufelchen oder Bulle und Bär. Danke nochmal. |