j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 1. November 2001 - 05:11 |
Die Zahlen zum C. C. waren diese Woche grottenschlecht. Kommentierungen - und damit die Marktstimmung - dementsprechend. Was davon zu halten ist, dazu fand ich diesen sehr interessanten Artikel von Forbes, einem der renommiertesten US-Wirtschaftsjournale : http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/editorial.gsp?id=55863 [Ende Oktober '01] The Upside Of Low Confidence By Dan Ackman It's that time of the month, time to obsess about consumer confidence. Reports about the "closely watched consumer confidence index" being down 11.5 points in October are everywhere. Confidence, the reports say, is at its lowest level since February 1994. Well, we already knew the economy was on its heels. We didn't need a consumer confidence survey to tell us that much, not when we have actual data on jobs, retail sales and production. But the Conference Board, purveyors of the most popular confidence index, claims its survey doesn't merely assess the present situation. It also assesses expectations. The so-called expectations index--a widely watched barometer of future economic activity, the board says--dropped from 78.1 to 70.8. Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's research director, says a reading below 80 has generally indicated a recession. This is bad, right? Well, not really. It may be that the U.S. economy is already in recession. That some survey may indicate that fact adds nothing to the sum total of information. But does the expectations index predict that the situation will worsen, as the Conference Board implies? The answer is no. The board's surveys are a grainy snapshot of the present, and they predict the future about as well as a Quiji board. The reporting of consumer confidence surveys is a monthly rite. Consumer behavior is unquestionably important. But there is no evidence that consumer confidence surveys predict anything at all. The confidence index is down today, but that does not mean the economy will also fall. The expectations index is at its lowest point since 1993, the Conference Board says. But in 1993, the economy was not headed down; it was about to take off. Gross domestic product grew by 6.2% in the fourth quarter of that year. In the first quarter of 1994, the economy grew by 3.4%. For 1994 overall, GDP growth was 4.0%, an outstanding result. Of course, in 1993 and 1994, confidence was on the rise--it had been brought low by the 1990-91 recession. Now it's falling. But there is no reason to believe that the survey indicates the shape of things to come. There is plenty of bad news to go around. Payrolls are down. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, beyond the tragic loss of life, forced many businesses to shut down temporarily or even permanently and has disrupted the shipment of goods since then. There is anthrax. GDP growth has stalled and may be going in reverse. This news is what caused the decline in confidence. Declining confidence is a result of bad news, not a cause. Beyond that it means nothing. |
prof_b - Donnerstag, 1. November 2001 - 10:02 |
Danke für die Info, ich schlussfolgere mal: JR hat doch keine Puts gekauft! ;-) Prof |
j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 1. November 2001 - 16:11 |
Doch doch - es gibt ja auch noch anderes "Belastungsmaterial"! ;-( JR |