| chinaman - Mittwoch, 22. Dezember 2004 - 12:10 |
| Öl-Titel leiden unter Dollarschwäche Analysten reduzieren Gewinnerwartungen europäischer Konzerne - Große Investitionslücke von Jens Wiegmann Berlin - Für Besitzer von Ölaktien steht derzeit ein Thema ganz oben auf der Liste: der Dollar-Kurs. Das sollte es zumindest nach Ansicht von Experten. Denn die schwache US-Währung hat einen massiven Einfluß auf die Gewinne und Aktienkurse der Ölkonzerne, vor allem der europäischen. Während der Gesamtmarkt in Europa auf einen zehnprozentigen Fall des Greenback mit einem 3,5 Prozent geringerem Ergebnis reagiert, schrumpfen die Profite der europäischen Ölmultis um das Dreifache, rechnen die Profis von Morgan Stanley in einer Studie vor. Der Titel: "Dollar Damage". Die meisten Experten raten deshalb, sich von Öltiteln fernzuhalten. Fondsmanager Thomas Deser von Union Investment beispielsweise hat den Sektor auf "Untergewichten" eingestuft. Die Schwäche der US-Währung, in der die gesamte Branche rechnet, ist für ihn der entscheidende Faktor. Denn für europäische Unternehmen wie die französische Total oder die italienische Eni fallen zwar die Kosten weltweit in Dollar an, was zu einer geringeren Belastung führt - aber auch die Verkaufserlöse werden in Dollar berechnet und erscheinen nachher in Euro in den Bilanzen. Und das frißt einen Großteil des zusätzlichen Gewinns durch den hohen Ölpreis wieder auf. Eine Ausnahme in Europa sind die beiden britischen Gesellschaften BP und Shell, die beide ihre Ergebnisse in Dollar präsentieren. Für US-Firmen wie Exxon oder Chevron Texaco stellt sich dieses Problem zwar nicht, aber der europäische Anleger hat dennoch nichts davon: "Denn wenn er den Wert der in Dollar notierten Aktie in Euro umrechnet, bleibt für ihn weniger übrig", sagt Deser. Der Fondsmanager erwartet im kommenden Jahr Kurse um 1,35 Dollar zum Euro. Morgan Stanley hat die erwartete Dollar-Schwäche zum Anlaß genommen, die Gewinnschätzungen für die europäischen Ölkonzerne für 2005 um 14 Prozent, für 2006 um 13 Prozent und für 2007 um 13 Prozent zu senken. Daraus entsteht ein weiteres Problem. Denn die Gewinne, die durch den starken Euro entfallen, fehlen in den Investitionen. Auf der amerikanischen Seite sind durch den schwachen Dollar die Kosten für die Erschließung neuer Ölfelder höher, der Effekt ist der gleiche: weniger Investitionen. Das verstärkt den ohnehin zu verzeichnenden Kostenanstieg zusätzlich: 1999 mußten pro Faß Rohöl 3,60 Dollar für die Exploration aufgewendet werden, im vergangenen Jahr lag der Aufwand bei 6,70 Dollar. Dominic Wallington von der Fondsgesellschaft Invesco, der den Sektor ebenfalls untergewichtet, verweist auf eine Investitionslücke von rund zehn Mrd. Dollar, die bis zum Jahr 2007 entstehen könnte (siehe Grafik). Die Konzerne müssen also viel Geld in die Hand nehmen, um diese Lücke zu schließen. "Wenn wir davon ausgehen, daß die Investitionsausgaben im Laufe der Zeit zunehmen, werden die Renditen unter Druck geraten", befürchtet Wallington. Die Eigenkapitalrenditen der großen europäischen Ölunternehmen sind laut Wallington ohnehin niedrig: Obwohl der Ölpreis im vergangenen Jahr in etwa mit dem im Jahr 2000 identisch war, sank die durchschnittliche Eigenkapitalrendite seitdem von 23 auf 15 Prozent. Zugleich seien Ölaktien zu teuer, so Wallington: "Die derzeitigen Kurse im Energiesektor setzen einen Anstieg der Renditen auf ein seit vielen Jahren nicht mehr erreichtes Niveau voraus." Im Frühjahr droht weiteres Ungemach. Union-Fondsmanager Deser rechnet damit, daß sich die Nachfrage entspannt, da dann ein saisonaler Rückgang und eine stark gesteigerte Förderung zusammenkommen. "Das könnte zu einem Verfall des Ölpreises führen." Möglich wäre dann ein Niveau um 25 Dollar. Zudem tritt China vermutlich ein wenig auf die Energiebremse. Wer mit diesen Schwankungen leben könne und davon ausgehe, daß Öl langfristig ein knappes Gut sein wird, für den seien Ölaktien langfristig interessant, sagt Deser. Anleger profitierten zudem oft von einer hohen Dividendenrendite und von umfangreichen Aktienrückkaufprogrammen der Unternehmen. Kurzfristig orientierte Anleger sollten jetzt aus Ölaktien aussteigen beziehungsweise nicht neu einsteigen: "Zum einen sind die Titel in die- sem Jahr bereits gut gelaufen, und zum anderen werden andere Titel interessant, wenn die Ölpreise sinken." Artikel erschienen am Mi, 22. Dezember 2004 Die Welt |
| chinaman - Mittwoch, 22. Dezember 2004 - 15:08 |
| Seit heute bin ich auch bei OMNI dabei. Es gibt wegen eines Hubschrauber Unfalls kräftig auf die Mütze ... Ich hoffe, dass die Börse da etwas übertreibt ... Gruß Chinaman December 20, 2004 OMNI ANNOUNCES HELICOPTER ACCIDENT Main Rotor Blade Strikes Equipment Being Temporarily Stored on Platform One Person Dies After Safely Exiting Helicopter CARENCRO, La. - December 20, 2004 - OMNI ENERGY SERVICES CORP. (Nasdaq: OMNI), announced today that one of its Bell 407s crashed around noon on Friday while attempting to land on an offshore platform located at Ship Shoal 130E in the Gulf of Mexico. The helicopter carried a pilot and three passengers. While all persons were able to exit the helicopter, one passenger died as a result of the accident. The exact cause of death has not yet been determined. The pilot sustained serious, but non-life threatening injuries and the remaining two passengers were treated and released with minor injuries. In a prepared statement, James C. Eckert, OMNI’s Chief Executive Officer, stated, ''Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family of the passenger who died as a result of this accident. We extend our sympathy to the families, co-workers and friends of all those touched by this loss.'' ''The National Transportation Safety Board (''NTSB'') is investigating the accident. Our internal review of this tragic incident leads us to believe the accident was not the result of a mechanical failure. It appears that on final approach to the designated safe landing area, the main rotor blade of the helicopter struck a piece of equipment temporarily placed on the platform. We intend to cooperate fully with the NTSB and will await the final results of their investigation of the incident,'' added Eckert. |
| mib - Donnerstag, 23. Dezember 2004 - 10:27 |
| oh china... der heli crash ist schon am letzten Freitag passiert... der price crash hat nix mit dem Hubschrauber zu tun, sondern mit der nicht zustande gekommenen Refinanzierung... im Moment kann man OMNI vielleicht traden, - aber fundamental koennten die auch den Laden dichtmachen muessen... Ich hab mit Nachkaeufen extra auf die Refi gewartet - und kaufe jetzt nicht(!) nach...! viel Glueck! - Mib |
| chinaman - Donnerstag, 23. Dezember 2004 - 11:20 |
| "der heli crash ist schon am letzten Freitag passiert... der price crash hat nix mit dem Hubschrauber zu tun, sondern mit der nicht zustande gekommenen Refinanzierung... " Hmm, hört sich nicht so toll an. Wo findet man vertiefende Details ... ??? Gruß Chinaman |
| chinaman - Donnerstag, 23. Dezember 2004 - 11:25 |
| Als der Kurs crashte war diese Meldung definitiv noch nicht auf der OMNI Homepage ... Gruß Chinaman December 21, 2004 OMNI ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF SENIOR CREDIT COMMITMENT CARENCRO, La. - December 21, 2004 - OMNI ENERGY SERVICES CORP. (Nasdaq: OMNI), announced today that it has been notified that Ableco Finance, LLC, an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management L.P., has withdrawn its commitment to complete the previously announced $100 million Senior Credit Facility. |
| mib - Donnerstag, 23. Dezember 2004 - 18:25 |
| doch doch... der heli crash war freitag wurde aber erst am mo gemeldet - ist ja auch nicht soooo besonderes... passiert oefters bei den fluegen zwischen festland und bohrinsel oder foerderplattform... die refi ist das problem... aber vielleicht hast mittelfristig alles goldrichtig gemacht... Mib |
| chinaman - Freitag, 24. Dezember 2004 - 10:39 |
| Zumindest bin ich kurzfristig schön im Plus. Frage mich nur sicherstellen oder doch (wie üblich) langfristig halten ... Wie siehst Du denn nun die Refinanzierungsproblematik ??? Ich wünsche Euch allen und Euren Familien ein friedvolles Weihnachtsfest !!! Gruß Chinaman |
| mib - Freitag, 24. Dezember 2004 - 14:28 |
| was ich jetzt sage ist garantiert falsch... :-) aber ich wuerde investiert bleiben... wenn die im Januar eine refi auf die Beine gestewllt kriegen, dann hast du ruckzuck verdoppelt... ich persoenlich bin aber ausgestiegen bei 2.49U$ und hab jetzt nachgekauft bei EGSR.OB zu .66, und hab FCO.TO zu .42, KRS.V zu .74 und ABG.V zu 1.75 gekauft... sowie bei TRGL zu 21.51 ein kleines bisschen vom Tisch genommen... Gruss - Mib |
| chinaman - Sonntag, 26. Dezember 2004 - 11:17 |
| @ mib: ich würde drinbleiben, bin aber raus ... ;-))) - ok, hab ich verstanden ... Danke ! Ich habe meine Stücke übrigens zu 1,25 EUR bzw. 1,30 EUR in München und Frankfurt abgefischt. Du hast mal nach Infos zu Kobalt gefragt. Kennst Du schon die folgenden Links ??? http://www.thecdi.com/cobaltfacts/COBALT..._Demand.pdf.pdf oder hier: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/c...balt/210302.pdf oder hier: http://www.formcap.com/i/pdf/Cobalt_News/2004-07_CDI.pdf oder hier: http://www.formcap.com/s/CobaltNews.asp |
| chinaman - Sonntag, 26. Dezember 2004 - 11:36 |
| Die letzten 2 Links wirst Du auf jeden Fall kennen, sind ja von Deiner Company FCO ;-)) Gruß Chinaman |
| chinaman - Dienstag, 28. Dezember 2004 - 17:18 |
| Aus der FTD vom 28.12.2004 US-Investoren entdecken alte Ölfelder Von Michael Gassmann, Düsseldorf Hohe Ölpreise machen die Ausbeutung schwer zu erschließender Vorkommen rentabel. Risikobereiten Anlegern winken satte Renditen. Die hohen Rohölpreise schüren eine Goldgräber-Euphorie in der US-Ölindustrie. Am Kapitalmarkt tauchen zunehmend Firmen auf, die sich mit der erneuten Ausbeutung von einst stillgelegten Ölfeldern befassen. Verbesserte Fördertechnologien erlauben es, aus den schon abgeschriebenen Feldern nochmals große Mengen an Erdöl zu gewinnen, so das Kalkül. Trotz der relativ hohen Förderkosten versprechen die jungen Firmen den Investoren ein lukratives Geschäft. "Wir erreichen die Gewinnschwelle bei etwa 20 $ je Barrel", sagte Jeff Johnson, Vorstandschef des in Texas ansässigen Newcomers Cano Petroleum, in einem Gespräch mit der Financial Times Deutschland. Am Montag notierte US-Öl in New York bei 42,17 $ je Barrel (159 Liter). Die neuen Firmen erhalten auch politisch Rückenwind. Im Präsidentschaftswahlkampf machten beide Kandidaten eine Verringerung der Abhängigkeit von Importöl zu einem Thema, das nun in den Medien weiter verfolgt wird. Rechnerisch verbraucht jeder der 288 Millionen US-Bürger täglich Energie, die 22 Barrel Rohöl entspricht. In China liegt der Vergleichswert bei 1,7 Barrel pro Kopf. Obwohl die USA nach Saudi-Arabien und Russland drittgrößter Ölproduzent weltweit sind, importiert das Land mehr als 60 Prozent seines Verbrauchs. Unternehmen wie Cano, Latigo Petroleum in Tulsa/Oklahoma oder die auf Öl und Gas spezialisierte Investmentfirma Encap haben bereits mit der erneuten Erschließung so genannter reifer Ölfelder begonnen. "Zwei Drittel der Ölreserven der USA stecken noch im Boden", so Cano-Chef Johnson. Experten schätzen die Gesamtmenge auf 377 Milliarden Barrel. Vieles davon wird sich auch künftig der Förderung entziehen, weil es in geologisch schwierigen Formationen liegt oder in Sand und Schiefer gebunden ist. Höhere Gewinne Johnson schätzt, dass der Anteil des förderbaren US-Öls von 32 Prozent auf 45 Prozent gesteigert werden kann. Dazu setzen die Unternehmen seit Jahrzehnten bekannte, weiterentwickelte Gewinnungsmethoden ein. Statt der üblichen Ausschwemmung mit Wasser lassen sich bei schwererem Öl oder Öl in porösem Gestein durch Erwärmung, Ausschwemmung durch Kohlenoxidgas-Gas oder spezielle Chemikalien höhere Gewinnungsraten erzielen, so die Ölfirmen. Cano hat mit rund 8 Mio. $ Erlös aus seinem Börsengang im Juni 2004 drei ausgebeutete Felder in Oklahoma erworben. Das älteste davon, Davenport, war seit 1924 in Betrieb. Bereits in den frühen 90er Jahren war es zu einem Anstieg der Ölproduktion aus älteren Feldern auf bis zu 750.000 Barrel täglich gekommen. Das entspricht knapp zehn Prozent der heutigen US-Produktion. Der neue, durch die hohen Ölpreise angefeuerte Boom macht sich bei Zulieferfirmen und Dienstleistern der Ölindustrie in steigenden Aufträgen bemerkbar. So lag die Zahl der Bohr- und Fördereinrichtungen in den USA im November mit 1262 knapp14 Prozent höher als ein Jahr zuvor. "Die höheren Ölpreise haben einen dramatischen Einfluss auf unsere Industrie", sagte Bruce Bell, Chef der Ölfirma Post Oak Oil, der Zeitung "USA Today". Die Branche arbeite an der Kapazitätsgrenze. Preisniveau von 60 $ wahrscheinlich Die neuen Firmen sind auf Anleger angewiesen, die an einen anhaltend hohen Ölpreis glauben. Die Schätzungen dazu gehen auseinander. "Ein Preisniveau von 60 bis 70 $ ist in Zukunft wahrscheinlicher als 30 $", macht Johnson geltend. Andere Experten gehen für die nächsten zwölf Monate von 35 bis 45 $ aus. Unumstritten ist, dass der Markt deutlich stärker als früher auf Krisen reagiert. Denn Lieferanten, die irgendwo in der Welt beim Ausfall eines Exportlandes einspringen können, werden rar. Die früher übliche Reservekapazität ist nach BP-Angaben von drei Millionen auf eine Million Barrel täglich gesunken - weniger, als aus Krisenregionen wie Nigeria, dem Irak oder Venezuela stammt. Grund ist die hohe und ständig steigende Nachfrage vor allem aus Indien und China, das seine Ölimporte allein in den vergangenen vier Jahren um 400 Prozent gesteigert hat. Weltweit seien zunehmende Bevölkerungszahlen und wachsender Wohlstand die Nachfragetreiber, sagte BP-Chef Lord John Browne kürzlich in Toronto: "Immer größere Teile der Weltbevölkerung können sich die Energie, die sie haben wollen, auch leisten." Stündlich wachse die Weltbevölkerung um 10.000 Menschen. "So kommen in jedem Jahr zehn Millionen neue Energienutzer hinzu", sagte der BP-Chef. Die Internationale Energieagentur erwartet bis 2015 eine Steigerung der globalen Nachfrage um 21 Prozent auf 100 Millionen Barrel täglich. BP schätzt die Reichweite der Weltvorräte auf 40 Jahre. Ölmanager versuchen, die Angst vor Versorgungskrisen zu dämpfen. Die 30 größten Ölfirmen planten derzeit Investitionen von 100 Mrd. $ zur Erschließung neuer Felder. "Im Laufe der nächsten drei Jahre wird eine ganz Reihe von bedeutenden Feldern in Betrieb gehen - in der kaspischen Region, in Angola und im Golf von Mexiko", sagte Browne in Toronto. Johnson glaubt dennoch, dass der Anteil der teureren, schwieriger zu erreichenden Produktion steigt. "70 Prozent der weltweiten Ölproduktion stammen aus Feldern, die mehr als 50 Jahre alt sind." |
| chinaman - Donnerstag, 30. Dezember 2004 - 09:42 |
| Aus der FTD vom 30.12.2004 Ölmarkt: Hoffnung auf milden Winter überlagert schwache Vorratsdaten Von Tobias Bayer, New York Die Akteure auf dem Ölmarkt stellen sich zum Jahresende auf weiter fallende Preise ein. Der Lagerbericht des US-Energieministeriums (DOE) verpuffte nahezu wirkungslos. Dabei vermeldete er einen Abbau der Rohölvorräte um 0,8 Millionen auf 295,1 Millionen Barrel. Hauptauslöser für den Preisanstieg am Mittwoch war eine Bombenexplosion im saudi-arabischen Ryadh. "Die Situation auf dem Ölmarkt entspannt sich zusehends. Der größte Unsicherheitsfaktor im Jahr 2005 ist Saudi-Arabien. Sollte es dort zu dauerhaften Instabilitäten kommen, wird die Terrorprämie in den Markt zurückkehren", sagte John Kilduff, Energieexperte beim Brokerhaus Fimat. Nordseeöl der Sorte Brent zur Lieferung im Februar fiel am Mittwoch bis 20 Uhr MEZ an der Londoner International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) um 0,9 $ auf 39,40 $ pro Barrel. Die IPE war am Montag und Dienstag geschlossen. Der Brentfuture vollzog am Mittwoch den Preisverfall des WTI-Terminkontrakts nach, der am Montag um knapp 3 $ eingebrochen war. In New York legte der WTI-Februarfuture um 1,33 $ auf 43,10 $ zu. Turbulentes Jahr Damit zeichnet sich nach einem turbulenten Jahr 2004 ein eher ruhiger Jahresauftakt auf dem Ölmarkt ab. Die Rekordnachfrage aus China, Gewerkschaftsstreiks in Norwegen und Nigeria, Unruhen in Irak sowie Hurrikans in den USA hatten die Ölnotierungen in New York am 25. Oktober auf den Rekordwert von 55,67 $ getrieben. Die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec), die rund ein Drittel der globalen Ölnachfrage deckt, weitete daraufhin die Förderung zeitweise auf rund 30,7 Millionen Barrel aus - den höchsten Ausstoß seit 28 Jahren. "Jeder hat die starke Nachfrage aus Asien unterschätzt. Das hat zu Engpässen geführt, da die freien Förderkapazitäten sich auf historisch niedrigem Niveau befinden", sagt Phil Flynn, Ölanalyst beim Brokerhaus Alaron Trading in Chicago. Von Januar bis November 2004 kauften die drei größten asiatischen Ölimportnationen China, Japan und Südkorea insgesamt 404,4 Millionen Tonnen. Das entspricht einem Tagesverbrauch von insgesamt 8,9 Millionen Barrel und einem Anstieg von acht Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Seit Oktober hat der Trend gedreht: Die Preise haben inzwischen um rund 24 Prozent nachgegeben. Hauptgründe: die Rekordförderung des Opec-Kartells und der milde Winterbeginn in den USA, der die Angst vor einer Heizölkrise im größten Verbraucherland der Welt gedämpft hat. Laut DOE-Bericht fielen die Destillatvorräte, dazu zählt auch Heizöl, in der vergangenen Woche um 0,8 Millionen auf 119,1 Millionen Barrel und damit um 12,6 Prozent unter den Stand des Vorjahres. Besorgniserregend sei das nicht, sagt John Kingston, Ölmarktexperte bei Rohstoffdatendienst Platts: "Eine Heizölknappheit ist angesichts des warmen Wetters unwahrscheinlich. Deshalb rechne ich mit einer weiteren Entspannung im zweiten Quartal." |
| chinaman - Freitag, 31. Dezember 2004 - 15:38 |
| Eine aktuelle Studie der Deutschen Bank mit dem Titel "Energieperspektiven nach dem Ölzeitalter" warnt vor einem Verknappungsschock gekoppelt mit einer Preiskrise: http://www.energienetz.de/pre_cat_46-id_...21dd832c5860fee |
| chinaman - Freitag, 31. Dezember 2004 - 15:56 |
| Wochenend-Wellenreiter vom 31. Dezember 2004 Erdöl in 2005: http://www.wellenreiter-invest.de/index.html |
| chinaman - Montag, 3. Januar 2005 - 17:57 |
| Noch keine neuen Refinanzierungsvereinbarungen bei OMNI ... December 30, 2004 OMNI Announces Status of Debenture Negotiations CARENCRO, La. - December 30, 2004 - OMNI ENERGY SERVICES CORP. (Nasdaq: OMNI), announced today that the Amendment and Conditional Waiver Agreement with the debenture holders is no longer in effect. That Agreement had provided the Company with (i) the right to redeem the debentures, (ii) a waiver of the covenant prohibiting senior debt, and (iii) an extension on the requirement to hold a stockholders meeting for stockholder approval of the issuance of additional shares of common stock to the debenture holders. The Company has not paid, in cash or in stock, the October interest payment or the November or December put payments on the Debentures. Failure to make such payments is an event of default under the Debentures, but at this time the debenture holders have not declared a default under the Debentures. "We are currently negotiating with the debenture holders to reach an amicable resolution of this matter," said James Eckert, Chief Executive Officer. "We remain steadfast in our commitment to avoid any material adverse dilution to our stockholders in satisfying the Debenture obligations," added Eckert. |
| mats2 - Montag, 10. Januar 2005 - 15:37 |
| Encana & Co. Canada Energy Stocks Petro-Canada EnCana May Rise as Oil Gains ^c.2005 Bloomberg News< By Laure Edwards Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian shares including EnCana Corp. and Petro-Canada may advance after crude oil increased to its highest in almost six weeks in London after stormy weather reduced output in a North Sea field. The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index sank 58.04, or 0.6 percent, to 9006.22 in Toronto on Jan. 7, falling 2.6 percent last week. It was the worst start for a year for the benchmark since 2001. Petro-Canada, Canada's third-biggest oil producer, may gain Cê1.09 to Cê60.79, early electronic trading showed. Imperial Oil Ltd., Canada's largest energy company, may increase Cê1 to Cê69.50. ôôCanada oil stocks will move day to day because of the price of oil,'' and will gain or lose over the longer term if their cost of production is less than what they can sell oil for, said Keith Summers, who helps manage Cê8 billion with Assante Asset Management in Toronto. Crude oil rose after stormy weather forced Royal Dutch/Shell Group to halt output, bringing Norway's idled production to 12 percent for a fourth day. Canadian natural gas also may increase as a blast of Arctic air is forecast to drop into the U.S. Midwest by Jan. 13, bringing some of the most severe weather of the winter. EnCana, Canada's biggest natural-gas producer, may add 30 cents to Cê66, according to early electronic bids in Toronto. |
| mib - Montag, 10. Januar 2005 - 15:44 |
| Danke fuer die Infos, mats2! Gruss - Mib |
| mib - Dienstag, 11. Januar 2005 - 15:22 |
| mein Kauf von PA Resources (Yahoo: PAR.OL) in Oslo fuer 38 Kronen sieht ganz gut aus... man hoert wirklich nur Positives von denen. Wen's interessiert: http://paresources.se der Kurs ist noch lange(!) nicht ausgereizt! Gruss - Mib |
| mib - Donnerstag, 20. Januar 2005 - 13:49 |
| ich hab gestern privat BPI Industries, BRP.V, in Vancouver gekauft. Gruss - Mib write-up see below... ein bisschen reisserisch, - aber die Fakten stimmen im Prinzip alle (soweit ich es checken konnte). EXTRAORDINARY COALBED METHANE OPPORTUNITY-OVER 1 TRILLION CUBIC FEET POTENTIAL Ride the coattails of 50 accredited investors purchasing $13 million of stock on January 13, 2005 and one of the largest multinational resource companies in the world that signed a letter of intent in December 2004 to JV and who will commit an additional $ 20 million for development. Company has not been on anyone's radar screen. There are TEN KEY reasons listed below of why to consider this Company. The Company is BPI Industries (TSX-V: BPR U.S. symbol: BPITF). BPI is an independent natural gas exploration and development company. The Company's focus is on developing and expanding its Coalbed Methane assets in the Illinois Basin. The Company represents a unique opportunity to invest in the development, production and growth of Coalbed Methane in the Illinois Basin. BPI is developing one of the largest coalbed methane portfolios in the potentially rich Illinois Basin, with a total of 423,000 acres of coalbed methane rights ("CBM acreage") divided into five major properties. The company has the first producing project in the basin, generating 1.2 MCF per day from 29 operating wells. Wells tapping other seams should be online shortly, while 2005 will see drilling activity of 4 to 8 wells per month (close to 100 total). Pipeline crosses all projects, enabling cheaper transport and richer sales margins. High-profile venture partners are coming onboard. Management believes its properties contain more than 1 TRILLION CUBIC FEET of recoverable gas. Immediate goals include acquiring additional CBM acreage (800,000 CBM acreage under negotiation now) and more precisely delineating the existing resource. Over the last couple years, the Company has grown its CBM acreage almost ten-fold from 43,000 acres to over 423,000 acres today making this one of the largest CBM projects in the U.S. The Gas Research Institute estimates that the Illinois Basin contains gross reserves of approximately 21 trillion cubic feet ("TCF") of natural gas. http://www.bpi-industries.com/coalbed-methane-3.php *****WHY BPI Industries and WHY NOW? 1) Here is the KEY: The Company believes the potential exists for recoverable reserves exceeding 1 TCF of natural gas from its existing CBM acreage. Why is this key? I estimate that a TCF could equate to a market cap value of anywhere from approximately $ 750 million to $ 1 billion depending on several factors including the price of natural gas. The company's current market cap is approximately $ 73 million. In addition, the Company is in negotiations to acquire an additional 800,000 of CBM acreage, which will only add to the above potential TCF (KEY). Does the Company have a competitive advantage to accomplish the acquisition of additional acreage? Read on. 2) Another KEY: The Company can acquire additional CBM acreage for as low as $ 1 to $ 2 per acre (some parts are higher) in the Illinois Basin versus for example CBM acreage in the Powder River Basin that costs $ 100+ per acre. This is a substantial competitive advantage operating in the Illinois Basin. In addition, since the Company is the largest CBM player in the Illinois Basin they have a competitive advantage (being the only producer in the Basin) with Illinois landowners who many times negotiate and receive up to 20% in royalty fees upon production. In addition, differentiating the Company within the Illinois Basin is the fact that it is currently is the only company commercially producing in-seam gas (for landowners this is very important). 3) Another KEY: There are TWO major gas pipelines that cross ALL of the Company's CBM acres, providing a ready access to markets for future gas production. This is yet another competitive advantage since the Company is able to get its gas production to market in a very cost-effective manner. 4) Another KEY: The location of the Company's CBM acreage puts it in close proximity to the second highest priced gas market in the US. Therefore the Company's gas marketing contracts net the Company a premium for its gas sales. I've heard as high as 12% higher. 5) Another KEY January 13, 2005: The Company is not being recommended by any major newsletter. Thus the Company has been under the radar screen. However, because of the January 13, 2005 successful equity offering for $ 13 million among only 50 investors (average investment $ 260,000 per investor!!) this could change. This is extremely impressive since these are most likely sophisticated investors who probably did extensive due diligence. Thus investors can now ride the coattails of such investors with an investment in the Company. In addition, the largest oil and gas investment bankers in Texas, Sanders Morris and Harris assisted the Company in this transaction. Imagine the due diligence this company did on BPI. By the way, the equity offering at $ 1.25 U.S. per share with half warrant at $ 1.50 U.S. per share was oversubscribed beyond the originally contemplated US$10 million. http://www.bpi-industries.com/news-view.php?id=144 This potential change was indicated in December 2004 by James G. Azlein, President "BPI's growth story is still largely unknown within the investment community. We believe that as we now start to raise awareness of the results and potential within BPI, we will be able to unlock the exceptional value in the Company." 6) Another KEY December 2004: "There's no question. BPI is the largest CBM player in the Illinois Basin. The next 12 months will see the execution of a very aggressive development and drilling schedule. BPI has just today signed a Letter of Intent to enter into a Joint Venture with one of the largest multinational resource companies in the world." James G. Azlein, President of BPI Industries Inc., December 2004 One of the largest multinational resource companies in the world !!!!! This adds tremendous creditability to the Company and its CBM acreage. http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/magazine/05/OilandGas/164_Oil&Gas_online.pdf Once again investors can ride the coattails of one of the largest multinational resource companies in the world. http://www.bpi-industries.com/news-view.php?id=139 In addition it was stated in the press release, "The International Partner has experience and expertise in coalbed methane development and is currently utilizing and developing innovative drilling techniques that BPI believes are at the forefront of the CBM industry. The letter of intent outlines the basic structure for a 50/50 Joint Venture in all of BPI's Illinois Basin Projects except for the Delta Project and the Illinois Mine Gas LLC projects. The structure calls for a staged investment and development program that will be funded 100% by the International Partner with a total investment of US$20,000,000 over a maximum period of 24 months. From the date of the letter of intent through February 28, 2005 the parties have agreed to negotiate in good faith, complete due diligence, and seek to finalize and sign definitive joint venture agreements before January 31, 2005." Note that January 31, 2005 is almost here! IMO the January 13, 2005 successful equity placement enhances the probability of this transaction being finalized. This was indicated in the January 13, 2005 press release: "In addition to the an aggressive drilling schedule for the upcoming year, management is excited and optimistic about successfully completing its current discussions with its potential joint venture partner as well as opportunities to further expand its footprint in the basin." IMO the Company's greatest strength is the terms of the current financing of possibly $ 33 million ($ 13 million equity plus $ 20 million from one of the largest multinational resource companies in the world), Just brilliant! A couple of other CBM public companies have recently done "toxic" debt financings. Just crazy! 7) Another KEY: The Company uses Halliburton Energy (the world's largest oil & gas services company) and Sproule Associates as part of their management team. There are no better firms in this country. In addition, they hired a former Halliburton Energy employee with extensive Illinois basin expertise. See BPI Expands and Strengthens Its Technical Team http://www.bpi-industries.com/news-view.php?id=137 in addition the Company has an excellent advisory board with extensive CBM expertise. 8) Another Key the timing is right: As stated in the January 13, 2005 press release it is an opportune time since the Company, with the recent positive events, is on the verge of a transformation: "The successful completion of this financing marks the beginning of BPI's transformation into a fully fledged exploration and production company. We are pleased with the receptivity of investors to our development strategy for BPI's Illinois Basin CBM assets. The capital raised will allow us to aggressively pursue the drilling opportunities on our current projects which have the potential to build meaningful values for our shareholders," said James Azlein, President and CEO 9) Another KEY: "We expect to initiate production from 15 in-seam wells at the Delta Project and 6 mine gas wells at the Illinois Mine Gas Project any time now. The Company is anticipating both an aggressive testing program and drilling schedule of 4 to 8 wells per month in 2005. Close to 100 wells in 2005. The Jericho Project, the first producing project in the Illinois Basin, currently has a total of 34 wells, 29 of which are in production. Current production is approximately 1.2MMCF per day from one of three potentially productive coal seams, which underlie this project. Permeability from Jericho data seems to indicate commercial viability for the other projects also. The economics on the Jericho Project look very favorable. The website has a model using 40 mcf/d per well and a $4/mcf realized gas price, the payback per well of drilling, completion and infrastructure costs is 1.55 years. This is excellent and since natural gas is north of $ 6.20 the payback is probably sooner. 10) Final KEY: IMO the Company has a very conservative balance sheet (no long term debt) and has been extremely prudent in its overhead incurred to date. The quarterly financial disclosures are on par with a fully reporting U.S. company. Perhaps better. They are just excellent. They track project expenditures and disclose salaries paid to officers. I have heard that wish to seek a U.S. listing, either NASDAQ or AMEX. IMO the financials will enhance their chances. See financials here: http://www.bpi-industries.com/financial-release.php Company has one of the best CBM company websites: BPI Industries Inc. Suite 910, 510 Burrard Street Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3A8 Phone:604 685-8688 Toll Free:1-800-803-3204 Fax:604 683-1797 Email:info@bpi-industries.com Website: http://www.bpi-industries.com/ Where discussed: http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/forum.asp?Symbol=BPR&table=list Canadian Quote http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=BPR&table=list Quote in U.S. Dollars http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=BPR&table=list&conversion=1&advanced=1&DisplayCurrency=US Shares Outstanding after January, 2005 placement: 40,733,003 Trading history--note low trading volume: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=BPR.V U.S. symbol: BPITF Five project summary: http://www.bpi-industries.com/projects.php Management, Directors and Advisory Board http://www.bpi-industries.com/corporate-info.php News releases: http://www.bpi-industries.com/news-release.php Key model showing proforma income from Jericho Project 43,000 acres http://www.bpi-industries.com/coalbed-methane-14.php Key article to read regarding the company--Wall Street Reporter Magazine Interview with James G. Azlein, President of BPI Industries Inc., December 2004 "Our primary function as management of BPI is simple; increase shareholder equity." http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/magazine/05/OilandGas/164_Oil&Gas_online.pdf The above information is meant for any due diligence performed. This situation would be considered high-risk high-reward. Please do your own due diligence. *****Why coalbed methane? Why now? U.S. Natural Gas Crisis The investment thesis for investing in a coalbed methane company such as BPI: "North American natural gas markets face a supply crunch that can be met in the near term only by increasing production from unconventional deposits. Production of natural gas from conventional sources in Western Canada and the lower 48 states has peaked, and faces a gradual decline, even as the growth in demand continues. AS A RESULT, NORTH AMERICAN COMPANIES WILL NEED TO EXPLOIT UNCONVENTIONAL SOURCES, SUCH AS COALBED METHANE." Gwyn Morgan, CEO EnCana Corporation "First the energy sector in general and the natural gas sector in particular are likely to remain two of the strongest investment themes for the foreseeable future. Natural gas prices have been very strong and look to be trending higher." James G. Azlein, President of BPI Industries Inc Matt Simmons' investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world. When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded: "I don't think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty." Go listen to this interview or read the excellent book---he believes building multi-billion LGN terminals is absurd because of long term limited supply of world NG and expense involved in transporting and storing. I guess they also make great terrorist targets and no one wants them in their backyard. High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis Darley, Julian click on real player http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Darley.html Other Reasons: 1) There is no OPEC to solve the North America natural gas supply problem 2) Problem will last for Years since LNG supplies only a tiny portion of US supply and there is no way to ramp up for years. 3) Natural Gas demand by new power plants coming online is skyrocketing-this was a result of a 1998 government report that forecasted ample supply of natural gas for years to come 4) all the reasons listed in the best interview and analysis I've ever seen: An Interview with Andrew Weissman by Bill Powers, Editor Canadian Energy Viewpoint January 4, 2004 http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/0104.html 2) The government's national natural gas policy is to hope for warm winter weather and cool summers. This is doomed ! 3) Warren Buffett moved on the area in 2001 and now controls approximately 8% of the US natural gas pipelines Bottom line is there is no solution to solve the North America natural gas supply problem. This is the reason to focus on this area for investment. |
| mib - Sonntag, 20. Februar 2005 - 11:51 |
| Don Coxe February 18, 2005 Ocean Ridge, Florida Topics include: - How to value natural gas companies - Outlook for LNG - Case for owning Alberta oil sands companies - Update on base metal stocks - Update on regional banking stocks - Commentary on Putin’s strategy in regard to energy and base metals “Got Gas?” Thank you all for tuning in to the call which comes to you today from Ocean Ridge, Florida. The chart that we faxed out was two gas prone companies and the question that we rhetorically fired was “Got gas?”. So I want to talk first today about the way to look at the valuation of the natural gas oriented companies and obviously companies such as Burlington, Devon and Encana are the ones that come to mind. And I want to contrast those companies in valuation techniques with the oily stocks. And I think probably over the years since I’ve been telling you to be overweight in both these groups, what I haven’t done is distinguish what the investment characteristics may be of one group or the other as they take on different defining characteristics. Encana is particularly interesting because when they sold their Buzzard Field in the North Sea to Nexen and put the proceeds into buying Tom Brown in this country, which is Powder River coal bed methane, what they’ve basically said is they’re going to take their big bets on gas, not on oil. And in the case of Devon and Burlington, these are the companies that bought out those Canadian gas companies and you know, those of you who have followed me for years, much to my deep chagrin and regret because they bought them at prices that turned out to be steals since Canadians and Canadian analysts continued to value them on the basis of sixty five cents per MCF for natural gas. So, what we’ve got then is a situation of the basic reserve life index problems of the United States gas companies. This is an industry that’s failed to replace its production year in year out for more than a quarter century. And meanwhile, as you know, natural gas, which has always promoted itself as the wonder fuel, then as people got more and more concerned about air quality and when you couldn’t build new nuclear plants as a result of the foam fleck types (?), what it meant was that natural gas got a bigger and bigger share of all new electricity generation plants in the United States. Well, then of course, we came in to this millennium and it’s been a very gaseous millennium. We’re looking at 5.93 for gas now and this is despite the fact that in the major metropolitan centers of the Northern US, it has been an unusually warm winter. Kind of thing that delights the Kyoto advocates but what it should mean is that gas would be very cheap. And analysts scratch their head and say why with the amount of gas in storage and given the fact that the weather is so mild, why is gas 5.93? Today, just this weekend, we’re at the 2/3 mark for winter as calculated by the astronomic style which is December 21st to March 21st and we are very nearly at the end of what the meteorologists call meteorological winter, which is December, January and February, the three coldest months of the year. Which should mean that natural gas would be selling for considerably less than it is. Well, of course, one big reason as you all know is the substitutionality of natural gas for distillate in all sorts of industrial applications. And since oil stays up at forty seven dollars a barrel, what that does is it means for these kinds of industrial applications, natural gas gets priced as its energy equivalent. And going forward, it’s hard to see that those kinds of relationships are going to change, which means that those people out there that still use 3.75 an MCF for natural gas, I think are going to continue to be wrong. However, there is one big thing on the horizon, that we’ve talked about from time to time on these calls, but I want to update you on it and that is LNG, liquefied natural gas. Now you know it’s been our position, that LNG which is supposed to be here by now, is not going to come, that 9/11 basically changed the logic of liquefied natural gas. Now, the economic logic is inescapable, but as we learn from nuclear power, if people are concerned about living anywhere near some situation that’s going to blow up, then the economic logic is put aside. Now in the case of the LNG, as you get these tankers, and they measure liquefied natural gas by the ton, not the MCF, and when I was recently in Boston down at the harbor area there, you were at the area where the LNG tankers come in. And they were proposing a massive new expansion in Boston, this because that’s the part of the country where they really need lots of natural gas, and it’s been held back by citizens groups and by politicians because of the possibility that all you need is an al Qaeda terrorist with a Stinger missile and maybe that would be enough to get rid of the voters who gave Kerry one of his few strong majorities. Which is certainly the kind of thing we’ve got to be scared about. I mean, I don’t know what the real risks are of this. I’ve been at sufficient industry meetings to know that there are deep divisions on this point. And Transcanada, as you’re familiar, tried to get an LNG pipe into Maine and once again they’re being met with resistance from people who are worried of what would happen. The industry continues to be soothing about this, particularly the notably aggressive Lee Raymond of ExxonMobil who says that “We’re going to deliver LNG at 3.75 an MCF and we’re going to hold down energy prices right through the next decade”. Because in Qatar and in Trinidad, what you have is just massive reserves of natural gas. And also in Indonesia, as a matter of fact, Lee Raymond got very familiar with the effect of LNG in Indonesia when shortly after the merger with Mobil that plant blew up. And that produced a huge sell off in the stock exchanges of Japan and South Korea, because that one facility was supplying a big percentage of the total energy consumption of Japan and South Korea. It was also supplying over fifteen percent of the total earnings of ExxonMobil. So it can be an incredibly profitable business for Big Oil. And Qatar comes out of that rare category of a Gulf state where the politics seem to be good and where the big oil companies are quite eager to invest. The way I think you should look at it for now, is that between now and 2011, when Lee Raymond’s forecast could come true, we’re going to have sustained high gas prices. And that by then, even though they can bring it in at a cheap price, that because of the declining output from lower 48 wells, that prices will hold up. In addition, of course, one of the bits of optimism the industry has had was the pipeline bringing Canadian gas and North Slope gas down into the Midwest. Again, I’ve been to conferences discussing this and the industry has what I regard as dewy-eyed optimism about how easy it is to get this approved. And they shouldn’t really have that view. If you go back to 1981, when the pipeline was first proposed, it was overruled by the judge who sat on the commission on the basis they planned to drive the pipeline through Old Crow which had twenty four hundred consecutive years of habitation there. And when the industry says “Yeah, but there’s only a hundred people there, we don’t mind moving them” the judge, justly in my view said “Well if you’ve got that kind of sensitivity I don’t think we should approve the project.” He thereby saved Imperial Oil and Shell Oil Canada because they were assuming hundred dollar oil and that was the justification for the economics of bringing gas down then. Well now, what we have of course is expensive oil and there’s no question about the economic viability of high arctic gas, but once again, the Inuits have not agreed. And this keeps getting held up and in addition we’ve got a battle going on between a Canadian route and a route from Alaska. And we have some very powerful Senators from Alaska who are insisting on that route. So, from my perspective, you shouldn’t be counting on early deliveries of gas coming out of that part of the world into the gas short US. So my view then is, that notwithstanding that you’re reading all this stuff about LNG and suggesting that natural gas reserves should be valued at lower prices, I think when you balance all the risks you’ve got at least five years of security and it’s quite obvious if we can get through a winter like this without gas prices really falling, then gas in the ground should be valued at something like it’s ordinary barrel of energy equivalent. Which means that these good gas companies, such as the charts we showed and the others, remain, in my view, excellent investments. They are not, however, as attractive as the oil stocks that have long duration reserves. So, if you’re thinking about new money going in to the group, then I’ll reiterate what I’ve said in Basic Points and in these calls which is, that the most attractive, from almost any standpoint are those of the oil sands companies – the Alberta oil sands. Because there is no competitor now in the world for them in terms of duration of reserves in politically secure areas. Now I can’t predict what oil prices are going to do this year or next year but I can simply say that when you’ve got fifty to a hundred years of reserves then at some time during that period of time, the price people paid for the stock right now is going to look trivial. Well, so, when we get beyond oil and gas, this is also a time when we like to come back to looking at our base metals stocks. And I’ve talked so often about the kingpin of the whole group, BHP Billiton, but it was great fun to read their report for their second half of last year. BHP takes the audacious view that they shouldn’t have to and they refuse to issue quarterly earnings statements. They say that’s not how they run their company. So they issue semi-annual reports. And for the last six months of last year, their earnings were up a modest 110% to US $2.8 billion. Let me put that into perspective. That means that in the last six months of last year, they earned 28% as much profits as WalMart earned in the whole year. So we’re not talking about a small company here. And the base metals component of their group, the earnings before interest and tax rose 213%, they said partly because of a 34% increase in the price of copper and of course if you check out copper today you’re going to see it’s selling at a much higher price than it was on average in the last six months of last year. But when you go through it, it’s really fun to see such things as that how well they did on their coking coal. Their earnings up there were 99% increase from last year. But they’re going to be increasing the price this year by 120%. Now, I continually run into people who say “Well, we’re growth investors and yeah, these are just deep commodity cyclicals. They’re not growth stocks.” Well…I think the list of true growth stocks is now probably, you know, about as modest a list as it’s been since I came into this business. Because we kept losing groups that are considered growth groups, most obviously the Big Pharma companies. So it seems to me that when you can buy companies such as Phelps for eight times earnings, Inco at nine times earnings, what you’re looking at is companies whose earnings are bound to grow simply because of the fact that they are tied to the growth in Asia. And I want to take that on to the next part of the story which is Alan Greenspan’s conundrum this week. Now you may say “How are these two stories inter-linked?”. Well they are interlinked because the US yield curve is saying that the US economy is going to slow down. Maybe even go into recession. The spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year, they’ve just been dramatically narrowing in. Now again, no surprise to those of you on these calls, but we reach the stage where you start to worry that the bond market is telling us that the consensus forecast of 3 to 3 ½ % economic growth – that we haven’t got a chance of reaching them. Now, one is always tempted to say that it’s different this time. And in fact, it may be. And I intended to discuss this in the forthcoming issue of Basic Points which I’ll be putting together next week. But on the other hand, I think that you ought there on the call should be a little concerned that what we have now is recession or near recession conditions in several of the Eurozone countries, including Germany, Italy, Holland. We have technically a recession now in Japan. And now we have a US yield curve showing the kind of signal that in the past signaled an oncoming recession. And you have to ask the question, maybe we’re going to have a slower economy this year than we thought. Well, the beautiful thing about investing in the base metals is that they are not driven by the economies of Europe and North America. What you do when you buy these stocks is you are taking a bet on economic growth in coming years in Asia – particularly China and India. So, I would make the case that what you do is you get the chance to bet on the fast growth regions as against the slow growth regions. But that the rest of the stock market, the rest of the S&P or the MSCI Global and everything, is tied primarily to stocks whose earnings are driven by the slow growth regions. Now, if you believe this, what it means then is that you actually have lower economic risk investing in the big base metal companies than you have investing in cyclical companies base here and tied to the economy here, because they are completely dependent on what happens in the US, Canadian and European economies. And whatever happens to China and India and obviously they’re going to slow down if we have a recession in the rest of the world – on any realistic time horizon, they’re going to grow faster than we are. And what we have is these lovely ratios. In the case of China, if you’ve got a unit of GDP growth as measured and they announce, what you can assume by that, and I’ve just done some calculations, for the growth of consumption in metals, it’s on the average three times what the GDP number is. So therefore if GDP is up 9%, then you can assume metals consumption’s up about 27%. Well, when you think about it, there are so few new base metal mines of any size being brought on and when you realize that we’ve run down three quarters of the inventories of the base metals in the London Metal Exchange, the Shanghai and the Comex Exchange, it seems to be we could stand some slowing down in China because we’d still be at the second derivative situation, which is, if we slow down to 3% growth in China, we’d still have a 9% increase in consumption of metals. We don’t have the inventories to deal with even that demand. So, although I am very much aware from the feedback I get that people are saying “Look, these stocks have run so far”, as a matter of fact I was seeing clients in New York this week and one individual said part way through the presentation that he hadn’t heard one noun, adjective or adverb that was controversial, because everybody knew that the Chinese economy was strong and that base metal stocks were a good investment, he said, “You can see that in the price of the stocks, look what’s happened. You’ve got Phelps from 24 to 100, everybody knows what you’re saying, this is a waste of time.” When I demurred to the point of pointing out that Phelps trades at eight times earnings which is more than a 50% discount to the rest of the market, he says “Yeah, but the stock never pulls back so therefore it means everybody agrees with you”. Well, I don’t doubt that 95% of those who listen in on these calls agree with me but at such point as these base metals start to trade anywhere close to a multiple of cyclical stocks even, here, then perhaps we can assume that we’re approaching consensus. It ain’t that way now, it’s got a long way to go. Now, the question about the ability of the bond market to forecast the economy is something that has broad implications. It’s worrisome because…it’s worrisome also for another group that I’ve been so strong on which is the banks, the regional banks. Because the steep yield curve has been Alan Greenspan’s great gift to the banking industry historically. He bailed out the US banks in the early ‘90’s with that and then out of this recession once again the steep yield curve meant banks did very well. Even when they had some loans to write down. So, as the yield curve goes from steep to shallow, certainly if it goes to flat, then I think that people really will be proclaiming the likelihood of recession. It’s already narrowing in, which means that bank spreads are going to narrow. On the other hand, what we’ve seen is the banking business has switched amazingly from being a corporate oriented business where the yield curve is really crucial to being a consumer oriented business where the yield curve is less important. And indeed, the mortgage backed area where what they are doing is investing up the curve anyway. So, again, reflecting concerns expressed at meetings of clients in New York, I am not taking off my overweight position in the bank group – notwithstanding what’s happened in the yield curve, because, you see, the corporate sector is awash in cash of its own and it’s not relying on the banks the way that it did before. So that this isn’t, in looking at the way they develop their earnings, the shape of the yield curve is not as important I would argue for the banks now as it was. So, I grant you that if you look from bank to bank you’re going to find a lot of them that are an exception to that statement. That’s a broad brush generalization. But there’s hundreds and hundreds of banks in this country, our firm Harris Investment Management has gotten all the way up to number one ranked in the country but a big reason for it has been that we’ve been pretty good at finding the good regional banks. So I’m sharing with the rest of you, the view that this remains an attractive are of investing. Finally, before we get to the questions, I’d like to draw everybody’s attention to a piece that was on the editorial page yesterday of the Wall Street Journal, “Give Putin A Break”, and it’s a piece by Padma Dasai who’s Harriman Professor of Economic Systems at Columbia. And the reason I’d like you to look at it is that, for those of you who are reading the current issue of Basic Points where I’ve tried to analyze Bush’s foreign policy and a big part of it is the relation with Putin, this is the only thing that I have read anywhere that makes me feel any better about what I’ve written. Because the torrent of anti-Putin commentary in the press, the demonization of him is such, I mean I just wish as having been a Cold Warrior growing up, just wish that the mainstream media back then had ever said anything as insulting about the Communists as they do now about Putin. So, they got it wrong then, of course, and maybe they got it wrong now. But I do think it’s very important, particularly as we try to look forwards at the whole situation of the energy and base metal stocks, that Putin is in a position to be incredibly influential on outcomes in both cases, because Russia is still the best hope for major new deposits in both those categories – about them being brought onstream. So, if you can discern, as you go through and read this piece by this lady, that he has a strategy and that he’s not just a throwback to some really bad Czar or some really bad Communist, then what you can see is that there are opportunities there and that what Bush is doing is the logical way of trying to prevent a new global oil shock and also trying to manage China’s entry into the global system. So, simply because it was some kind of endorsation of this, I wanted you all to see it. Anyway, that’s the story for today, are there any questions? So that’s it, any questions? -- Don Coxe Profile from the BMO websites: Donald G. M. Coxe is Chairman and Chief Strategist of Harris Investment Management, and Chairman of Jones Heward Investments. Mr. Coxe has 27 years experience in institutional investing, including a decade as CEO of a Canadian investment counseling firm and six years on Wall Street as a 'sell-side' portfolio strategist advising institutional investors. In addition, Mr. Coxe has experience with pension fund planning, including liability analysis, and tactical asset allocation. His educational background includes an undergraduate degree from the University of Toronto and a law degree from Osgoode Hall Law School. Don joined Harris in September, 1993. Don Coxe Weekly Conference Call – Current http://www.jonesheward.com/Commentary/p_Commentary.aspx Basic Points – Archive Basic Points is a monthly publication of opinions, estimates and projections prepared by Don Coxe of Harris Investment Management, Inc. (HIM) and BMO Harris Investment Management Inc.: http://www.harrisnesbitt.com/bresource/basicpoint/default.asp |