Diskussionsforum der stw-boerse: Auslandswerte: Auslandsdepot: Veraenderungen: Archivierte Beiträge bis 18. September 2004
mib - Dienstag, 13. Januar 2004 - 16:25
na den breakout in Hongkong hatten andere wohl auch bemerkt.... waer ja auch zu schoen gewesen...

SDAY z.Zt. +22%

Mib

j_r_ewing - Dienstag, 13. Januar 2004 - 20:41
Generika: zufällig gestern bei briefing:
(na gut, ist nicht deine Frage - aber vielleicht nützlich)

11:53AM Eon Labs (ELAB) 50.05 +3.49: One of the relatively few companies to go public in 2002, Eon Labs (ELAB) might have foretold the success of recent IPOs today. Shares opened for trading at $15.20 on May 23, and have more than tripled since then. A combination of favorable market conditions and enviable company fundamentals has launched the stock to new highs.

Today, the generic drug maker's raised Q4 (Dec) outlook has prompted a short squeeze (shares short as a percentage of float are 15%) and lifted the stock 8% higher. Eon Labs now anticipates Q4 (Dec) earnings rising approximately 27% to $0.38-0.41 per share, and revenues increasing 13% to $75-80 mln. Both forecasts top the Reuters Research consensus estimates, and represent the second time this reporting period management has issued above consensus projections.

As a result, the company's FY03 (Dec) numbers have been revised higher, and indicate strong year/year growth as well. EPS should jump roughly 44% to $1.51-1.54 (consensus of $1.47) and revenues should climb 32% to $320- 325 mln (consensus of $315.2 mln).

Eon Labs's impressive financial track record is the product of its drug line-up. A steady stream of abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) have acted as buffers to products that have lost exclusivity (180 days for generic drugs). Unit volumes sold have accelerated during the year, and contributed to the expanding gross margin picture.

Management will release it Q4 results on February 19, and should (in keeping with its recent trend) also comment on its Q1 (Mar) and FY04 expectations. The market will probably be looking for upside surprise from Eon Labs given the stock's run and the company's tendency to top consensus estimates. Investors should eye $1.71 for FY04 EPS and $374 mln for revenues.

Briefing.com would recommend investors wait for the Q4 release before initiating positions in ELAB. The stock has shown renewed strength today, edging above its 50-day simple moving average at $49.40. Shares need to show sustained action above the 50 mark and break a resistance level at 51 to augment the recent trend, and we are optimistic that the FY04 earnings guidance could do just that. -- Heather Smith, Briefing.com

mib - Donnerstag, 15. Januar 2004 - 10:16
limitierte (Nach)Kauforder New York: OMNI, 100 zu 5.50 U$, tagesgueltig

mib - Mittwoch, 21. Januar 2004 - 12:51
Verkauf aller 600 KVL.TO zu 1.99 CAN$ (1.55 U$).

der Erdgaspreis steigt... die Aktien steigen... aber bei KVL.TO wird bei ca. 2 CAN$ munter verkauft....
die news vom letzten Montag war auch nicht berauschend....
...also verkauf ich vorsichtshalber mal...
und schau mir an:
Dynamic Oil (Canada/USA)
und
Vital Biotech (Hongkong).

Mib

mib - Dienstag, 24. Februar 2004 - 16:22
24.02.04: Verkauf: 60 AWA, 10.54 U$

gerade habe ich erfahren, dass AWA nur fuer die erste Haelfte von 2004 die Treibstockkosten "gehedged" hat. Das halte ich fuer eine voellige Fehleinschaetzung der Entwicklung des Oelpreises und verkaufe daher die gesamte Position, obwohl das Unternehmen ansonsten sehr gut aufgestellt ist.
:-(
Mib

mib - Mittwoch, 10. März 2004 - 08:50
meine Einschaetzung finde ich immer mehr bestaetigt und nunmehr scheint auch die Oeffentlichkeit das Problem wahrzunehmen (siehe unten einen Artikel aus dem Wallstreet Journal).

Das Auslandsdepot (und ich auch privat) wird auch waehrend der shoulder season ueberproportional in Oel&Gas Aktien investiert bleiben!

Mib

MUCH GUESSWORK IS USED TO FIGURE GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY

By STELLA FARRINGTON

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON -- Behind the debate about the world's oil reserves is one sobering fact: The evidence involved might not be as solid as billed.
While there is an abundance of opinion and analysis from authoritative-sounding organizations about whether reserves are running out, little of the conjecture is based on hard numbers. "There's a real paucity of solid information out there," said Jim Meyer, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, a London-based group that tries to call attention to the world's energy supply.
Corporations' reserves reporting also has been called into question recently following Royal Dutch/Shell Group's downgrade in January. Total SA Chief Executive Thierry Desmarest called for international standardization of reporting regulations at a London news briefing last month.
Even at the most fundamental level of field appraisal, a geologist and an engineer can differ in their opinions on how much oil a field will yield.
Sources that analyze direct oil-field data include the U.S. Geological Survey, which is funded by the government, and IHS Energy, a consulting firm formerly known as Petroconsultants. But a lot of the world's oil information can be hard to get -- data from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which holds about 70% of the world's oil reserves, often are confidential.
Some of the most relied-upon sources of reserves information tap those groups, as well as each other, when compiling their estimates. OPEC, in information it puts out into the market, sometimes quotes the industry publication Oil and Gas Journal -- to which it supplies information in the first place. The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration use data from the U.S. Geological Survey, which collects and analyzes source data on fields but also buys data from IHS Energy for information from outside the U.S.
BP PLC's Statistical Review of World Energy is collected almost entirely from the Oil and Gas Journal and the International Energy Agency, not BP's own research.
"There's very little data taken from the source and it's impossible for organizations to gather core data, so they have to rely on a few scout organizations," said Jean Laherrere, a retired geoscientist with French giant Total SA.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimate of world oil reserves splits opinions. It paints a reassuring picture of world oil supplies leveling off rather than reaching a peak and then declining. This view is then recycled by many industry think tanks and the IEA, which uses USGS data for much of its research. The result is the widely held assumption that there is no looming or long-term resource constraint to energy supply.
Kenneth Chew, vice president of industry performance and strategy at IHS Energy, doesn't agree with USGS's interpretation. "We're more or less happy with the USGS's yet-to-find estimate but we don't agree with its model for working out world reserves growth," he said, calling it "unduly optimistic."
Thomas Ahlbrandt, World Energy Project chief at the USGS, defended its reserves-growth estimates, saying, "We feel very comfortable that our estimates are reasonable. They have borne out so far."
Bob Tippee, editor of Oil and Gas Journal, said its data can only be as good as that provided in response to its surveys. "Years ago we could rely on oil companies for reserves data," he said. "Now, with the preponderance of oil reserves owned by governments, we have to rely on a survey of ministries and state oil companies. So the numbers have a political dimension that requires another layer of interpretation."
The reaction in the energy markets to the sharp restatement of Royal Dutch/Shell Group's crude-oil reserves has been muted. But analysts say the news serves as a reminder of the price jumps that could result if similar adjustments are made at other big oil companies or, even worse, state-controlled energy firms.
Since Shell slashed its proven reserve estimates in January by 20%, or the equivalent of about 3.9 billion barrels of oil, crude-oil prices have risen 6.8%, or $2.30, to $36.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts, however, blame the rise largely on meager above-ground inventories and production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This week -- even as The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported on documents showing that Shell executives appear to have been aware of the shortfalls1 two years ago -- crude prices have fallen 98 cents.
Analysts say overestimations of energy reserves would have to be much more widespread to spill over into the commodity markets or the prices consumers see at the gasoline pump. No one is saying such a spate of rejiggering is imminent. But at a time when the supply-demand balance of the energy markets already is delicate and prices are widely expected to go higher, many experts at least are reconsidering how the markets might handle additional news of what amounts to shrinking future supply.
"The Shell situation is playing a subtle role in the background, heightening worries about long-term oil supplies even though it's had no immediate price impact," said James Steel, research director for commodity brokerage house Refco. "Have we accurately predicted reserves world-wide, and how immediately accessible are the reserves that we have identified?"
Energy experts say identifying untapped deposits of crude, natural gas and other commodities is inherently difficult. Hence, even if companies aren't intentionally being overaggressive in their estimates, there always is ample room for simple error.
The best estimates of world-wide crude reserves, however, shed light on why Shell's restatement by itself hasn't swayed energy markets wildly. Mr. Steel estimates world-wide crude reserves at more than one trillion barrels, with the deposits in several big oil-producing nations dwarfing Shell's 3.9 billion-barrel restatement.
John Kilduff, senior vice president for energy at the commodity brokerage house Fimat U.S.A. Inc., estimates Saudi Arabia's reserves are 261.6 billion barrels, Iraq's are 112.5 billion and Kuwait's are 96.5 billion.
Those in-ground resources haven't been translating into robust supplies to world markets, though. With heavy demand from China's growing economy gobbling up oil and OPEC restraining supply, inventories in the U.S. and other countries have stayed low. According to a survey of analysts by Dow Jones Newswires, inventory data due out Wednesday from the federal government will likely show a 725,000 barrel rise in U.S. crude storage, to 276.5 million barrels, which is 8.3% below the five-year average.
The tight inventory picture is already translating into higher prices at the gasoline pump. Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Agency said retail gasoline prices are likely to hit a record $1.83 a gallon this spring.
Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman, said he remains more focused on American drivers' demand for oil and refined products. "We know from history these estimates of reserves are unreliable," he said, adding: "When people stop buying [sport-utility vehicles] I'll know that long-run supply matters."

mib - Sonntag, 21. März 2004 - 10:28
von Montag, 22.03., bis Dienstag, 6.04., keine Aktualisierungen wegen Dienstreise.

Nachkaufkandidaten sind z.Zt.:
Transglobe Energy, TGA
und eventuell:
Genta, GNTA
Sunday, SDAY
Stet Hellas, STHLY
Phoenix, PXG

Kaufkandidaten sind z.Zt.:
Chaparral, CHAR.OB
Transmeridian, TMXN.OB
Vital Biotech, 1164.HK (Hongkong)
Dynamic Oil&Gas, DYOLF
Thunder Energy, THY.TO

Gruss und bis Ostern!

Mib

mib - Sonntag, 21. März 2004 - 12:43
sehr lehrreich!

http://www.naturalgas.org/business/demand.asp

invest2004 - Dienstag, 30. März 2004 - 14:32
Netia im Polen 4,08 zl billiger geht nicht, in diesen jahr will noch Dialog kaufen, El-net gehört schon Netia, nur kaufen und warten auf 1.05.2004 wie Polen kommt zu EU, dann kommen neue investoren.

mib - Dienstag, 20. April 2004 - 20:22
ich muss einfach nochmal auf Phoenix Footwear hinweisen. Heute gab es exzellente Quartalszahlen:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040420/nytu085_1.html
und daher kann die Aktie bei grossen Handelsvolumen bisher ca. 20% zulegen.

Gruss - Mib

mib - Montag, 26. April 2004 - 13:21
Kauf von 10000 Stk Vital Biotech in Hongkong zum kurs von 0.70 HK$.
Achtung: zur Zeit sind wegen software-Problemen im Depot nur 1000 Stk eingetragen, aber der volle Preis fuer 10000 Stk im cash Bestand beruecksichtigt.

Mib

mib - Donnerstag, 29. April 2004 - 10:48
ACHTUNG:
aus technischen Gruenden erscheint in der Tabelle des Auslandsdepots die Stueckzahl von Vital Biotech (1164.HK) mit 0.1 und der Kurs mit 10 multipliziert!!!

Mib

stw - Freitag, 30. April 2004 - 09:25
Das ist natürlich auch ein cleverer Work-Around, um unser Problemchen im System zu umgehen...

;-) stw

prof - Freitag, 30. April 2004 - 09:42
Vielleicht hätte man auch 9999 Stück eintragen können!
:-) Prof

mib - Montag, 3. Mai 2004 - 09:10
schlechte Neuigkeiten fuer Genta (und Sanofi-Aventis): Genasense wird aller Wahrscheinlichkeit NICHT die Zulassung der FDA bekommen (jedenfalls nicht zur Anwendung bei Hautkrebs):
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040430/health_genta_4.html

Mib

mib - Montag, 21. Juni 2004 - 08:56
Verkauf der Position in Genta, GNTA, zu 2.57 U$ (Spekulationen koennen halt auch ins Auge gehen...).

Nachkauf von 400 Transglobe, TGA, zu 2.53 U$
(die neuesten Ergebnisse von Exporationsbohrungen im Yemen sind zu gut, als dass man nicht nachkaufen MUESSTE!)

VitalBiotech (1164.HK) macht Sorgen... es gibt keine materiellen Nachrichten, die den Kursverfall erklaeren koennten, ausser dass der Titel "in Sympathie" zu Far East Pharma (0399.HK) gleich mitverkauft wurde...

Gruss - Mib (der ab Mittwoch wieder fuer 3 Wochen auf Dienstreise ist).

mib - Mittwoch, 23. Juni 2004 - 13:12
diesmal keine Veraenderung, sondern nur ein kleines "Spiel" bevor ich erstmal fuer 3 Wochen verstumme.

Mit Sicht auf Stichtag 30. Jan. 2005 bzw. 30. Jan. 2006 sollte es sich lohnen, allmaehlich eine kleine spekulative Position in einem Mix aus den vier folgenden kleinen Oel&Gas-Aktien aufzubauen:
Centurion, CUX.TO: 3.24 CAN$
Thunder, THY.TO: 7.16 CAN$
Dynamic, DOL.TO: 4.29 CAN$
Double, DBLE: 13.76 US$

...mal sehen, wie die sich so entwickeln werden... vielleicht schafft es eine davon ja ins Auslandsdepot!

ansonsten:
buy Transglobe! (and OMNI)

Gruss - Mib

mib - Donnerstag, 29. Juli 2004 - 09:30
Mib geht nun bis 15.8. in Urlaub...

bis denne... - Mib!

mib - Dienstag, 7. September 2004 - 09:55
Verkauf aller 400 Stk. Tusk, TKE.TO zu 3.55 U$ (4.62 CAN$) mit 30.5% Gewinn.
....Tusk wird in 50% Royalty Trust und 50% exploration company umgewandelt. Deutliche Kursgewinne sind z.Zt. nicht mehr zu erwarten.

Verkauf aller 200 Stk. Sunday, SDAY zu 5.68 U$ mit 27.4% Gewinn.
Depotbereinigung und Liquiditaetsaufbau zur Vorbereitung auf den (von mit erwarteten) Herbst/Wintersturm auf Energiewerte.

Gruss - Mib

PS: Zur Zeit gute Nachkauf/Einstiegsgelegenheit bei Transglobe, TGA oder TGL.TO ! ;-)

mib - Samstag, 18. September 2004 - 15:25
Phoenix, PXG, warnt ganz ueberraschend und verliert 30%...
ziemlich uebertriebene Reaktion, finde ich, aber bevor man nachkauft, sollte man abwarten, was Management noch zu sagen hat... :-(
dafuer kommt Transglobe, TGA, wieder mit einer sehr erfolgreichen Oelbohrung und der Kurs kann nach der Schwaeche der letzten Zeit wieder zulegen... (da stimmt der erneute private Nachkauf bei 2.83 CAN$ recht milde... :-) )

Mib

Diskussionsforum der stw-boerse: Auslandswerte: Auslandsdepot: Veraenderungen: Archivierte Beiträge bis 18. September 2004