| mib - Freitag, 1. November 2002 - 20:10 |
| http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021101/energy_gas_outlook_2.html |
| mib - Montag, 25. November 2002 - 18:55 |
| Kauf von 200 Stk. Brigham Exploration fuer U$ 3.61 |
| mib - Mittwoch, 4. Dezember 2002 - 15:43 |
| Nachkauf von 10 Stk. Encana fuer U$ 27.97 Kauf von 18 Stk. Devon Energy fuer U$ 47.15 400 Stk. Humatech fuer U$ 1.35 (highly speculative!!!) |
| mib - Freitag, 6. Dezember 2002 - 15:28 |
| abgesehen von meiner starken Uebergewichtung nordamerikanischer Erdgas & -oel E&P companies und verwandter Industrie (PDS, PDC, WG), faellt zur Zeit besonders die Nachrichtenlage bei M-Systems sehr positiv auf. Wer sich dafuer naeher interessiert, dem kann ich nur die postings von savolainen_si auf dem Yahoo message board von FLSH empfehlen! Gruss aus dem verschneiten Pennsylvania... Mib |
| mib - Montag, 9. Dezember 2002 - 15:31 |
| deshalb JETZT nordamerikanische Erdgas E&P Aktien und aehnliches kaufen: http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/021209/energy_canada_natgas_1.html Mib |
| mib - Montag, 9. Dezember 2002 - 17:00 |
| http://biz.yahoo.com/twst/021209/rar903.html |
| mib - Donnerstag, 12. Dezember 2002 - 23:16 |
| die Erdgasvorraete in USA fallen schneller als erwartet... diese Chance will ich mir nicht entgehen lassen... also Nachkaeufe bei den E&P companies! Nachkauf: 10 Stk. ECA, 30.21 U$ Nachkauf: 1000 Stk. TGLEF.OB, 0.40 U$ Nachkauf: 70 Stk. BEXP, 4.40 U$ Nachkauf: 10 Stk. DVN, 48.00 U$ Verkauf: 700 Stk. AKLM, 0.89 U$ Verkauf: 200 Stk. CAND, 1.09 U$ |
| mib - Freitag, 10. Januar 2003 - 18:25 |
| nochmals eine Erinnerung, warum das Auslandsdepot so stark in nordamerikanischen Erdgas (und oil service und drilling) Unternehmen engagiert ist: http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030109/2119000888_1.html der Artikel ist eine schoene kurze Zusammenfassung der aktuellen Situation! |
| mib - Sonntag, 12. Januar 2003 - 10:28 |
| hier gibt's das woechentliche Expose von Raymond James zu Erdoel und Ergas als pdf file: http://www.raymondjamesecm.com/industry_1300_main.asp?indid=71 dann auf "natural gas update" bzw "API ,,," clicken der Winter in USA und Canada ist bisher sehr kalt und es sieht nicht so aus, als wuerde sich das in den naechsten paar Wochen deutlich aendern. Also ist es sehr wahrscheinlich, dass die woechentlichen "draws" jetzt fuer ein paar Wochen (z.T. deutlich!) ueber 100 liegen werden. Die USA steuern auf eine Erdgaskrise zu!... waeren nicht der Iraq und Nordkorea, dann waere dies DAS (Medien-)Thema in den USA - aber so passt niemand drauf auf... cheers - Mib |
| mib - Montag, 20. Januar 2003 - 22:42 |
| gute news von TGLEF.OB: http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030120/energy_transglobe_1.html in Toronto (wo ja kein Feiertag ist) zur Zeit +17% Gruss - mib |
| mib - Dienstag, 11. Februar 2003 - 16:24 |
| infos zum Erdgas... ansehenswert!!! http://www.gasalberta.com/gasprices/ gruss - mib |
| mib - Freitag, 21. Februar 2003 - 01:12 |
| zum erdgas: http://www.bofasecurities.com/featuredresearch/content/docs/StorageFlash022003.pdf |
| mib - Dienstag, 25. Februar 2003 - 19:52 |
| schaut euch mal die Erdgas/-oelaktien an... und noch immer denken die meisten, alles sei ok bzw. werde sich nach einem schnellen und erfolgreichen Golfkrieg schnell wieder bei deutlich niedrigen Oel- und Gaspreisen stabilisieren... - betrachtet man jedoch die Angebot/Nachfrage-Situation in Nordamerika, die Vorraete, die Bohraktivitaet, die Abnahme der absoluten Foerdermengen und die deutlich hoehere Abnahme der Foerdermenge pro Lagerstaette pro Zeiteinheit ("decline rate"), dann stellt man fest, dass die USA zumindest beim Erdgas mitten in einer ausgewachsenen Energiekrise sind! ...das wird noch spannend! Gruss - Mib |
| mib - Freitag, 28. Februar 2003 - 16:03 |
| so - jetzt faengt man an aufzuwachen... Press Release Source: Energy Ventures Group, LLC Natural Gas Prices to Top $10 Per Million BTU, a Special 63-Page Energy Report Indicates Tuesday February 25, 9:15 am ET WASHINGTON, Feb. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- Natural gas prices are expected to top $10 per million BTUs as record high reserves are withdrawn from underground storage during this winter heating season, Energy Business Watch announced this morning. The record high gas price is one of the startling conclusions of a new report on the emerging natural gas crisis, entitled "A Cold Blast in Winter - A Special Report on the Impact of Winter Weather on Natural Gas Consumption, Storage and the Price for Natural Gas." "Monday's 50% increase in the price of natural gas futures is just the tip of the iceberg," said Andrew Weissman, the principal author of the 63-page report issued in Washington, D.C. this morning. "We believe natural gas prices will break the $10 barrier before the end of this winter's heating season and remain at record high levels for several years." The report on the emerging natural gas crisis was prepared jointly by Energy Ventures Group, L.L.C., Energy Business Watch's parent company based in Washington, D.C., and Foresight Weather, a weather forecasting service based in Boulder, Colorado, that uses its own proprietary, state-of-the art model to prepare detailed short-term, 30-day and 90-day weather forecasts. The report takes an in depth look at the causes of the recent run-up in natural gas prices and offers specific projections regarding potential further increases in natural gas prices and reductions in amounts of natural gas in storage over the remaining six weeks of the winter heating season. The report concludes that: -- By the end of this year's winter heating season, a total of more than 2,750 BCf of natural gas is likely to be withdrawn from underground storage -- an all time record high. Further, this record withdrawal is expected to occur even though, to date, winter temperatures, as measured in gas-weighted Heating Degree Days (HDD's) have averaged 4.9% milder than normal. During the course of the winter to date, withdrawals have averaged 5.8 BCf/day greater than can be explained based upon weather conditions alone. This is the strongest confirmation to date that a severe under-supply condition exists in the U.S. market, in which total supplies for the year are likely to fall at least 1.5 - 2.0 TCf (i.e., 6.5 - 8.5%) below the Energy Information Agency's (EIA's) most recent forecast of expected U.S. consumption of natural gas for 2003. -- Between now and the middle of March, as the amounts of natural gas in storage continue to plummet rapidly (particularly in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., where the greatest winter-month consumption occurs) the spot market price of natural gas is likely to break the $10.00/MMBTU barrier -- and potentially reach record levels at Henry Hub in Louisiana and Citygate delivery points in the Midwest and the Northeast. -- After the winter heating season ends in late March, prices may subside modestly. For most of the remainder of the year, however, prices are likely to remain well above $8.00/MMBTU. -- While physical shortages of natural gas are not likely to occur this winter, the amount of natural gas remaining in storage is likely to drop to perilously-low levels before the winter heating season ends, particularly in the East Consuming Region and the Producing Region. By the end of March, storage is currently on a trajectory to fall to below 75 BCf in the East Consuming Region and below 125 BCf in the Producing Region -- i.e., all-time record lows. -- In order to ensure adequate supplies throughout the remainder of the winter heating season, Local Distribution Companies (LDC's) in the eastern U.S. and their suppliers are likely to aggressively step-up spot market purchases of natural gas in a determined effort to supplement rapidly dwindling reserves. Their task in doing so, however, will be daunting. Over the past 24 months, industrial use of natural gas has declined by more than 22 %, eliminating a large portion of the most price sensitive load that remained in the market just two years ago when prices last spiked above $10.00/MMBTU. As a result, LDC's and their suppliers are likely to find it necessary to bid prices up to at least the $ 10.00/MMBTU levels in order to drive out of the market a significant portion of the much smaller and (and less price sensitive) industrial load that remains in the market today. Further, since the remaining industrial load accounts for less than 25% of total U.S. consumption, even a fairly large reduction (e.g., a decline of 1/3rd or more) in remaining industrial use will only free-up 30 -35 BCf/week in additional supplies (i.e., a total of less than 150 BCf total between now and the end of March). -- Even with an all-out, aggressive effort to replenish current reserves, total underground storage in the U.S. is likely to fall below 500 BCf (a record low level) by the end of March 2003. -- After the winter heating season ends, the natural gas industry is likely to have just as difficult a time rebuilding storage during the Refill Season (which runs from April through October) as it had in maintaining storage at reasonable levels this winter. As a result, even with aggressive efforts to replenish storage during the Spring, Summer and Fall, the industry may have difficulty achieving an injection during this year's Refill Season any greater than 1,250 BCf. This in turn would leave storage below 2,000 BCf at the beginning of the '03/'04 winter heating season (vs. 3,200 BCf this November) and set the stage for continued strong upward pressure on natural gas prices during much of the remainder of this year. The Report addresses in depth the causes and consequences of the current shortage. It concludes that the current severe mismatch between supply and demand and natural gas in the U.S. is due to the combined impact of five major factors: 1. The continued aging of most major natural gas fields in both the U.S. and Canada and corresponding rapid increase in the decline rate for existing U.S. and Canadian wells (i.e., the rate at which production from each well declines every year). 2. The sharp cutback in drilling of new wells in both the U.S. and Canada that began immediately before the September 11th attack and has continued throughout the past year. As a direct result of this cutback in drilling, U.S. production of natural gas in 2003 will be at its lowest level in 15 years with little or no likelihood of any meaningful increase in production until, at the earliest, Q 2 or Q 3 of 2004. 3. The simultaneous rapid growth in the use of natural gas as a fuel to generate electricity. Use of natural gas at generating units has grown by more than 1.78 BCf (i.e., almost 35 %) since 1997, and has become by a considerable margin the largest category of consumption (i.e., 30% for generation vs. 23% for industrial use). Use of natural gas at powerplants is likely to grow at a particularly rapid rate in 2003, due in part to the impact of much stricter limitations on NOx emissions that go into effect in a 12-state region in the northeast beginning on May 1st of this year, which will required increased utilization of gas-fired generating units in the northeast and a ratcheting back of coal. 4. Continued growth in the use of natural gas to heat homes and offices. A record number of new homes have been completed over the past 4 years, of which more than 70% use natural gas for heating purposes. 5. A decline, for the first time in many years, in imports of natural gas from Canada and a simultaneous sharp increase in exports of natural gas to Mexico, in part to fuel new gas-fired generating units built in that country. The net impact of these factors, at a time when the U.S. natural gas market already has been experiencing a severe supply deficit for more than a year, will be to create the largest mismatch ever between expected levels of consumption and total supplies available to the U.S. market. This mismatch does not mean that the U.S. is "running out" of natural gas; instead, to the contrary, there still are adequate reserves of natural gas available to be developed to meet the needs of the U.S. market for many years. The issue is strictly: (i) the time required to develop these resources; (ii) the long-term prices required to justify development of these reserves; and (iii) the near-term price increases that are likely to be necessary to balance supply and demand during the period in which these resources are being developed. To meet growing demand for natural gas, it will be necessary for the E&P industry to undertake a new generation of highly capital intensive, long lead-time, often high risk projects, such as: (i) construction of the MacKenzie Delta Pipeline to bring natural gas from the Arctic Circle in Canada into the U.S. market; (ii) siting and construction of new, ultra-deepwater platforms in the Gulf of Mexico; and (iii) construction of the massive infrastructure needed to dramatically increase imports of Liquefied NaturalGas into the U.S. market (e.g., new production trains, new liquefaction facilities, a whole new fleet of specialized LNG tankers and new delivery terminals positioned to serve the U.S. market). Many of these projects are likely to require, at a minimum 5 - 7 years to complete, with completion dates, at the earliest, in the 2008 - 2010 timeframe. In the interim, the price for natural gas in the U.S. is likely to rise to much higher levels for sustained periods of time -- with prices frequently rising to at least $8.00 - 10.00/MMBTU for extended time periods, and quite possibly higher levels. CONTACT: Eric Wagner of Energy Ventures Group, LLC, +1-202-944-4143, or mobile, +1-703-899-3528, or ewagner@energyvg.com. Further information regarding the Report also can be found on the Energy Business Watch website: http://www.energybusinesswatch.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: Energy Ventures Group, LLC |
| mib - Montag, 3. März 2003 - 17:26 |
| link zu einem interview mit einem der angesehensten Oil&Gas Analysten. sehr informativ!!!!!! http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/MATT.SIMMONS/ Gruss - Mib |
| mib - Sonntag, 9. März 2003 - 13:24 |
| Bei all meiner Begeisterung ueber den nordamerikanischen Erdgassektor... hier mal ein link, der verdeutlicht, warum ein - fuer manchen vielleicht skurril anmutender - Titel wie Bravo Foods im Auslandsdepot vertreten ist: http://www.dairyfoods.com/articles/2003/02/MilkFeature.htm Gruss - Mib |
| mib - Montag, 10. März 2003 - 13:15 |
| pfd file for download: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/domino/html/research.nsf/DocID/C3B80200D2446FB1862 56CE2006E24EC/$File/GHP.pdf Matt Simmons presentation in Houston on March 5th worth the look. Good summary on the global energy situation, with some interesting charts. cheers - Mib |
| mib - Montag, 10. März 2003 - 13:17 |
| der link sollte jetzt funktionieren: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/domino/html/research.nsf/DocID/C3B80200D2446FB186256CE2006E24EC/$File/GHP.pdf |
| mib - Montag, 10. März 2003 - 13:19 |
| noch ein Versuch: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/domino/html/research.nsf/DocID/C3B80200D2446FB186256CE2006E24EC/$File/GHP.pdf |
| mib - Montag, 10. März 2003 - 13:20 |
| das direkte link laesst sich nicht posten... muesst ih rmit cut&paste machen... mib |