j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 14. März 2002 - 09:00 |
Für mich mit die interessanteste Zukunftsbranche überhaupt: Machine Vision. Cognex wird im Text als die Nr. 1 bezeichnet. Möge mir der Himmel noch mal einen Rückfall auf 22 bescheren ! http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cgnx&d=c&t=my Keine Schulden. KUV 8,3 teuer; aber hier mach ich mal eine Ausnahme : http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=/stocks/companyinformation/ratio&Ticker=CGNX http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4CC3F22D%2DA7F8%2D44F7%2D9D48%2D4F0DAB6F6FAF%7D Cognex sees improving chip industry CEO predicts smaller losses, targets Q2 acquisitions By Bill Clifford, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 6:39 PM ET March 13, 2002 TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- Cognex Corp. of the U.S., the top maker of machine vision systems for semiconductor fabrication and other industries, sees a better 2002 than it did just six weeks ago. While Cognex's candid chief executive, Robert Shillman, does not envision an easy pot of gold beyond some rainbow -- these days his once reliably profitable company is losing money -- the nightmare that arose from relying on the chip and electronics sectors for 60 percent of revenue and on Japanese customers for 40 percent of all sales appears to be fading. Lately, the global semiconductor industry has been flashing signs of bottoming out after its worst slump (see related story). And some economists are predicting Japan's recession will ease as early as the second quarter. "The worst is over for us," Shillman said in an exclusive interview with CBS.MarketWatch.com in Tokyo this week. Asked if Cognex (CGNX: news, chart, profile) was ready to guide investors about an upturn in its business, Shillman said, "My CFO would tell me not to answer that question directly, but I'll tell you this: Our projections are more positive than they were. "That doesn't mean we're going to be profitable from here on," he said, "but it certainly means our losses will be less than what we expected." On Jan. 28, Cognex officially snapped a streak of 58 straight quarters of profit by reporting an Oct.-Dec. net loss of $11.1 million. It warned then that if low orders were to persist, it would also lose $0.05 to $0.08 per share in the first quarter and stay in the red the rest of this year. Keep an eye on it Two other developments could further improve the outlook at the Natick, Mass. maker of computers that "see." In the next few days, Cognex will announce it is ready to bring to market a more powerful version of its In-Sight product line of vision sensors. These are low-cost, high-performance miniature inspection devices. Paper and plastic packaging companies and pharmaceutical manufacturers are among those using the sensors to automatically measure and identify parts, verify the correct assembly of products, detect defects and guide production equipment. Shillman also said Cognex expects to make two acquisitions in the second quarter. The company has $292 million in cash and no debt on its balance sheet. "We are looking at one in Europe, which would be the division of a large company, and one company in North America," he said, declining to name names but adding that initial agreements have been signed. Client pain Cognex sells mainly to "original equipment manufacturers," or OEMs. Its vision systems are key components of the complex machines that semiconductor equipment makers build. Applications of Cognex devices include aligning wafers and guiding the placement of tiny electronic devices onto printed circuit boards. The semiconductor equipment companies in turn sell to chipmakers, which produce the bits of silicon that power computers, cell phones and medical devices. Companies throughout the entire supply chain have been slashing excess inventories and capital spending ever since the tech bubble burst two years ago. "Cognex is several steps removed, so the recovery will take longer," said Alexander Paris, analyst at Barrington Research Associates, who lowered his recommendation on the stock to "hold" on Jan. 29 after the company reported the fourth-quarter loss. Shares of Cognex dipped 10 cents to $25.88 but mostly recovered to $25.95 in after-hours trading Wednesday. Hardware stocks reeled after analysts cut revenue and profit analysts for Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, chart, profile). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX: news, chart, profile) has now given up more than 8 percent from its intraday high on Friday, which was its highest level since Aug. 3. Cognex shares have traded between $17.60 and $35.57 over the last 52 weeks. "It's a great trading stock for now," Paris said. "The stock could double or even triple over two years." Japan In Japan, Cognex controls approximately four-fifths of the machine vision market, according to Akiharu Inose, director of marketing at the wholly owned subsidiary. It has about 150 OEM customers, such as Fuji Machine Manufacturing, Tokyo Electron and Nikon. "The business in Japan has fallen dramatically, and it's not because we've lost to competitors. It's because our customers just bought less," said Shillman. He and Inose said that sales in Japan, which had accounted for 42 percent of Cognex's entire revenue on average over the past 10 years, dropped to about 20 percent of last year's revenue or less. Cognex sold $140.7 million worth of vision gear worldwide in 2001, down 43.8 percent from $250.7 a year earlier. See the results. A turnaround for customers may be in the offing, although it doesn't look like a "V-shaped" recovery. Nikon Chairman and CEO Shoichiro Yoshida said in an interview Tuesday, "We've managed to reduce inventory considerably." On a few occasions, Nikon (NINOY: news, chart, profile) has revised down its fiscal 2001 sales forecasts for steppers, large machines used to fabricate semiconductors. It expects a net loss of 11 billion ($85 million) in the year to March 31, instead of a profit of nearly the same amount, originally forecast last summer. "We are still in a tough situation," Yoshida said, "but the number of orders for steppers is gradually increasing." Yoshida and Shillman gave lectures on entrepreneurship at Waseda University, which just dedicated a new academic building to the Cognex CEO, a recent benefactor. Cognoid cuts Despite the hit to Cognex's Japanese business, its subsidiary here was largely spared Cognex's first job cuts in 15 years. In fact, Japanese staffing grew in 2001 because of the integration of employees from the machine vision division the company acquired from Komatsu, a Japanese manufacturer of heavy machinery for the construction industry, the year before. Last October, Cognex fired 85 staff, including 25 contractors and 60 full-time "Cognoids," half of whom worked at the Natick headquarters (see the news release). Shillman said he resisted deeper cuts even though he could have done so to break even and extend the earnings streak to 59 quarters without a loss. "That would have been damaging to the company," Shillman said. "Losing money -- my investors don't like to hear this -- it's okay once in a while. You can't sit at a poker table for 15 years and make money on every hand. Now, I say it's okay only because what's happening has nothing to do with Cognex. I wouldn't say it was okay if we screwed up." Paris, the Barrington analyst, said Cognex "will emerge from this downturn stronger than ever," noting its strong cash position and lack of debt. "Cognex is hands and feet down the industry leader. It's gaining market share," he said. What has sustained the company through one of the harshest periods since Shillman founded the enterprise in 1981 is its other group of customers, the "end users." Automotive companies use machine vision systems to gauge dimensions on brake pads. Beverage makers use them to inspect logo quality or label positioning. U.S. currency is printed on paper examined by Cognex surface inspection systems. Check it out Cognex is moving toward low-cost, user-friendly vision products that don't require a lot of engineering support on factory floors. In Tokyo on Friday, it will unveil In-Sight 4000, a sensor device that is five times more powerful than the image-processing capability of current In-Sight products. At one-sixth the size, it can be built into assembly robots and small machine tools. "Any factory in the world that makes things in a semiautomatic or automatic way can have it mounted above an assembly line or conveyer. Plug it into an ethernet, and from any computer in the world, the manager of that plant can control the manufacturing of whatever items," Shillman said. In-Sight 4000 goes on sale in Japan next month, and details about when its U.S. market debut will be announced Monday. "It has all the power of the products that we've sold in the past for $20,000 and I think it's going to be sold at something like $6,000," Shillman said. Among the competitors Cognex faces in the small machine vision segment is DVT Corp., a privately held maker based in Atlanta, Ga., which introduced SmartImage sensors to the U.S. market 10 years ago. Bill Clifford is Asia bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.7 |