| mib - Dienstag, 27. März 2001 - 06:38 |
| @JR: nochmal zu PGO: vergiss nicht, dass es sich bei denen eigentlich um eine norwegische Firma handelt. Das ist in USA oft ein Malus (siehe z.B. die Bewertung von Frontline, FRONY, im Vergleich zu Teekay, TK). |
| mib - Dienstag, 27. März 2001 - 06:47 |
| also irgendwann muessen die Leute doch mal aufwachen und erkennen, wie unterbewertet viele E&P companies sind! ...oder werden wieder alle lieber high-techs mit KGV 200 kaufen???? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Related QuotesBHI EPG 40.44 63.00 +0.94 +1.00 delayed 20 mins - disclaimerGet Quotes ADVERTISEMENTMonday March 26, 7:55 pm Eastern Time N. Amer gas production flat, despite drilling boom-El Paso CEO By C. Bryson Hull NEW ORLEANS, March 26 (Reuters) - North American natural gas production is flat despite a 10-year-high drilling boom, the top executive of the world's biggest natural gas company said on Monday. El Paso Corp. (NYSE:EPG - news) Chairman and Chief Executive William Wise said receipts from his company's expansive gas gathering pipeline systems have stayed at roughly 4.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) since January 1998. ``Our field services are in all of the basins where all of the drilling in the United States is taking place and we are not seeing a production response. We're just kind of treading water, holding our own,'' Wise told an audience at boutique energy investment firm Howard Weil's annual conference. But the long demand and short supply opens up opportunities for the Houston-based company to offer other gas supplies, like liquefied natural gas (LNG), or gas transported from frontier areas like Alaska or the Canadian Maritime Provinces, he said. The production plateau comes despite the highest rig count in 10 years, 1163, reported for the week ending March 23, according to Baker-Hughes Inc. (NYSE:BHI - news). Of the total, 904 of the rigs were drilling for gas. The culprit is shrinking decline rates which have offset the drilling surge. Better well completion techniques and technology plus robust commodity pricing have driven steeper decline rates in the Gulf of Mexico, Wise said. Decline rates are now nearly 50 percent per year, as opposed to 17 percent in 1970, he said. ``What not everybody realizes is the same thing is happening in Canada,'' Wise said. Decline rates there moved from 20 percent per year to 40 percent per year from 1990 to 1998, he said. BIG LNG PLANS Wise expounded on El Paso's previously announced plans to beef up its LNG operations. Earlier this month, El Paso announced a tentative deal to begin buying LNG from Phillips Petroleum's (NYSE:P - news) Darwin, Australia plant for shipment to Baja, Calif. El Paso, which has the most capacity at the U.S.'s four LNG terminals, also plans to build as many as six more receiving terminals on both coasts. All of the expansion is aimed toward increasing liquidity in the LNG market and making it more moveable commodity, he said. ``We think we can generate a brand-new business in global, long-term LNG. Not just long-term, point to point, buy LNG here and deliver it there for 20 years,'' Wise said. With enough liquidity and natural gas prices above $4.50 per thousand cubic feet (mcf), the segment is worth an estimated $200 million of pretax earnings per year, Wise said. Analysts estimate gas will remain in the $5/mcf range well into 2002. |
| j_r_ewing - Dienstag, 27. März 2001 - 17:58 |
| zu Frontline: Die Brüder fahren eine Umsatz-Nettorendite von 42% ein??? ich faß es nicht!! KGV 200: ja, werden wieder viele - aber nicht mehr so viele wie bisher; so mancher hat sich die Pfoten ZU schmerzhaft verbrannt und fängt an zu rechnen, und deshalb werden dann die Anschlußorders fehlen, und die Triebkäufer werden sich wundern, warum es auf einmal WIEDER nicht mehr geht... Die Papiere der Rechner werden vielleicht nicht so spritzig starten, aber dafür durchhalten. Gruß JR |
| mib - Dienstag, 27. März 2001 - 19:47 |
| zu Frontline: die ganze Branche ist wegen der hohen charter rates extrem "reich" geworden, was vom Markt aber nicht honoriert wird, weil niemand glaubt, dass die Preise halten (wegen OPEC Foerderungskuerzung, moegliche Rezession, etc). Schau dir mal an: NAT, VLCCF: beide 30% Dividende (wenn die Preise halten).... OMM, TK, FRONY, Stelmar: alle 3 spottbillig... sonst keine Freude heute bei den NG Werten. APA dreht stark nach Sueden und PDS auch - voellig unverstaendlich.... Mib |
| mib - Mittwoch, 25. April 2001 - 03:01 |
| hervorragende leichtverstaendiche Zusammenfassung - sehr lesenswert!!! http://www.hubbertpeak.com/gas/primer/ Mib |
| mib - Mittwoch, 2. Mai 2001 - 16:47 |
| ACHTUNG! Gestern nachmittag hat der "shoulder season blues" voll eingesetzt! "shoulder season" bezeichnet die Zeit im Fruehjahr, wenn die Heizungen abgesachaltet werden und die Klimaanlagen noch nicht angeschaltet sind. Daraus ergibt sich eine sinkende Nachfrage nach Strom und Oel, die genutzt wird, um die Vorratslager aufzufuellen. Die Zahlen (AGA und API) fuer die Menge an Oel und Gas, die in die Speicher gehen, steigt daher drastisch an. Als Folge davon sinken die Oel- und Erdgaspreise und dann auch die Aktienkurse in der Branche. Dies ist eine Kaufgelegenheit!!! Schaut euch an: drillers: PDS !!! NBR PDE exploration & production: KWK !!! DNR !!! EPEX !! AXL.TO !! eventuell POG !! AHC !! VPI ! APA ! PRZ ! oil tankers: FRONY OMM TK SJH tubes etc.: MVK eventuell geophysics service: SEI ??? |
| mib - Mittwoch, 2. Mai 2001 - 19:06 |
| Storage Net injections for the week ending April 20, 2001, estimated by the American Gas Association (AGA) at 43 Bcf, were lower than the previous week’s 64 Bcf, but about twice the 1995-99 average for the week. Thus far during the first 20 days of the refill season, 111 Bcf has been added to stocks, compared to EIA’s 5-year 98 Bcf average for the month of April. As a result, U.S. stocks have improved relative to the 5-year average by 6 percent since the close of the heating season and now stand at 30 percent below. Net injections were relatively high in each region. The West region set a new record for the week with additions of 9 Bcf. The East and the Producing regions’ additions of 20 and 14 Bcf, respectively, were outdone by performances of 33 and 27 Bcf in 1998. |
| mib - Mittwoch, 2. Mai 2001 - 21:41 |
| AGA +102 recht hoch, - daher weiterer Preisrutsch bei Erdgas und Aktien. |
| mib - Dienstag, 5. Juni 2001 - 05:16 |
| meine aktuelle watchlist bei den Energietiteln i.w.S.: PGO (oil service - Geophysik) MIND (oil service - Geophysik) UNT (driller) KEG (driller & rig service) MEOH (Methanol-Produzent) EPEX (NG Exploration - Nachkauf) CED (oil & NG) AXN (oil & NG) AHC (oil & NG) APA (oil & NG) FTO (refiner) Ich ueberlege allen ernstes, die ersten 5 alle ins Depot zu nehmen. Ich will in dem Sektor praesent sein, aber auch sehr stark streuen... Was sagt ihr dazu? Gruss - Mib |
| j_r_ewing - Dienstag, 5. Juni 2001 - 07:49 |
| Nanu, mib, seh ich recht: die PGO auf Deiner Liste? Über die hatten wir doch schon mal gesprochen, wei cih sie auch habe: trotz des Ölbooms eine lausige Performance, mit schlechten Gewinnen aus unerfindlichen Gründen? (höchstens, daß PGO eine norweg. Firma ist - aber ist sie das jetzt weniger?) Kann man denn jetzt hoffen, daß die - aus erfindlichen Gründen - jetzt mehr Gewinn zustande kriegen ? Gruß JR |
| mib - Mittwoch, 6. Juni 2001 - 17:27 |
| PGO: die sind im off-shore Tiefwasserbereich stark und da stuerzen sich die grossen Oelfirmen jetzt drauf (bleibt ihnen auch nix anderes uebrig....). allgemien: (kopiert aus dem Edge thread): du kannst dir ALLE Gewinnschaetzungen fuer oil & nat. gas E&P companies ansehen und wirst feststellen, dass die Gewinnerwartungen fuer 2002 deutlich unter denen fuer 2001 liegen. Das "Problem" ist hier, dass die Analysten bei diesen Abschaetzungen immer von den Erwartungen der eigenen commodities research Abteilungen ausgehen. Und die hatten fuer 2001 z.B. Rohoelpreise im Bereich von 19 - 21 U$ und NG Preise von ca. 3 U$ angenommen. Wir liegen bisher aber DEUTLICH darueber, was bedeutet, dass die Gewinne bisher nur so sprudeln!!!! FTO z.B. (refiner) hat gestern angekuendigt, dass sie in 2001statt der erwarteten 2 U$ stattliche 4 U$ machen werden!!!!! Fuer 2002 gehen die analysten nun noch konservativer zu Werke und nehmen nochmals niedrigere Oel- und Gaspreise an. Dem stimme ich Ahnungsloser in der Grundtendenz zu, - aber wir gehen von einem viel hoeheren level aus, als erwartet. Da wegen der nachlassenden Wirtschaft die Nachfrage sinkt und das Wetter bisher unnatuerlich kalt ist (keine air cons an!), sind die Mengen, die in die Speicher gehen hoch, und (besonders die Gas) Preise unter Druck geraten. Also sinken die Aktienkurse in der ganzen Branche. Im Juli/August wird der Gaspreis wieder viel hoeher sein und dementsprechend auch die Kurse. Eine weitere Belastung sind zur Zeit, die politischen Umwaelzungen. Ein Rep. Senator ist im Prinzip ins Lager der Demokaraten gewechselt, die im Senat jetzt weas zu sagen haben. Man spekuliert, dass die eine etwas andere Energiepolitik durchsetzen wollen. Wichtig ist bei den Unternehmen aber vor allem, dass ihre Gewinnsteigerungen nicht nur durch steigende Oel- und Gaspreise sondern durch steigenede PRODUKTION verursacht werden. Und da sieht es bei EPEX eben sehr verheissungsvoll aus. Ich lauere auf Preise unter 7 U$, um dann zuzuschlagen! Sollte aber EPEX eine news ueber eine erfolgreiche Bohrung rauslassen, dann bin ich gekniffen und der Kurs saust ohne mich nach oben. Mal sehen, was ich mache. |
| mib - Mittwoch, 6. Juni 2001 - 20:19 |
| AGA Zahlen: +117 starker Zufluss von NG in die Speicher, - jetzt sollten die NG Werte eigentlich auf Tauchstation gehen... |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 22. Juni 2001 - 20:18 |
| Übrigens sehe ich gerade, daß der Ölpreis wieder ungefähr auf seiner Halb-Jahres-Basis ist (West Texas Intermediate um 26$). http://gis3.teledata.de/forum1/charts/chart.html?symm=XWTI.FX1&kunde=20728ext Erdgas hab ich wenig verfolgt (hab keinen Langfristchart); z.Zt. um 3,85$ (Henry Hub im Sept.), was mir aus dem Bauch raus auch niedrig vorkommt (war's nicht neulich noch einen $ teurer?) Schätze, mib würde aus Leibeskräften für die Energiewerte trommeln, wenn ich mich nicht irre...! (Allerdings: wenn man sich den Öl-Chart auf Jahresbasis mal so ansieht, sieht man (bisher zumindest) nur, daß er langsam auf besagte Basis absinkt. Da muiß man zum Einstieg schon eine dezidierte fundamentale Meinung haben. Viel Charrt-Raum für ein Trading ist da nicht.) Also, verschlaft nichts! Greetings JR |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 22. Juni 2001 - 21:46 |
| Branchenchart-Exegese: Oil & Gas : http://bigcharts.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=ong&bcind_period=5yr tadelloser / . Nähe untere Rand es /-Kanals; günstiger Kaufzeitpunkt. SeKtoren : die Majors : http://bigcharts.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=oil&bcind_period=5yr Vollgas [ :-) ], nahe all time high. Rückschlagsgefahr im /-Kanal. die Secondaries : http://bigcharts.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=ois&bcind_period=5yr Bild ähnlich, jedoch im /-Kanal am unteren Rand. Oilfield Equipment And Services : http://bigcharts.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=eqs&bcind_period=5yr Auch hier könnte man noch einen / sehen; jedoch nicht gut definiert . Seit 1/2 J. in Korrektur (stieg wohl zu explosiv und konnte das tempo nicht halten; siehe vage obere Begrenzung). Wenn man dem / traut, wäre jetzt fast Kaufzeit. Pipelines : http://bigcharts.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=pip&bcind_period=5yr Chart kürzerfristig kaputt, wenn er nicht SOFORT wieder nach oben dreht! Anderenfalls noch sehr viel Fall-Raum! Drillers : http://bigcharts.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=drl&bcind_period=5yr ähnlich den "Services"; noch verschwommener. / gefährdeter: wenn er nicht schnell wieder ca. 425 schafft, / wohl erst mal kaputt, und Korrekturphase. Falls (!) diese einigermaßen seitwärts geht, wäre er in dieser allerdings auch schon wieder im unteren Bereich; also evtl. ein Kauf. Mein Fazit: Wenn der Ölpreis die 26 hält, sollte man sich jetzt mit mittelgroßen Ölfirmen und (riskanter) mit Service-Firmen eindecken. (Im Sinne relativer Stärke (teuer kaufen - noch teurer verkaufen) wären natürlich die Großen das Ding der Wahl.) |
| j_r_ewing - Donnerstag, 28. Juni 2001 - 21:23 |
| Ölpreis bei 25,80 - jetzt wirds eng... |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 4. Juli 2001 - 08:03 |
| Ölpreis wieder bei 26,50 - Chancen wieder besser. |
| mib - Samstag, 7. Juli 2001 - 20:55 |
| Natural Gas: short-term: pfui - long-term: hui!?!?!?! Gas Turbines Remain Go-To Technology for New Generation By Douglas J. Smith IEng, Senior Editor Over the last few years, there have been drastic changes among gas turbine suppliers. Siemens has taken over Westinghouse while ABB has sold its power generation group, including the gas turbines, to Alstom. GE, in addition to taking over some of its former license holders and packagers, purchased S&S. Click here to enlarge image According to Energy Ventures Analysis Inc., Arlington Va., a record 51,805 MW of new gas turbine based capacity is expected to be added by the end of 2001, Figure 1. This is a 117 percent increase over the capacity added in 2000. However, this will be overshadowed in 2002 and 2003 when more than 80,000 MW is expected to be added each year. For the period 1998-2007, 305,304 MW of gas turbine based power plants will be in operation, under construction or actively in development. All of the additional capacity in development and under construction is expected to be on-line by 2007. Click here to enlarge image By 2007, power plant developers are expected to add 20 to 40 percent to their current gas turbine based capacity. The three leading states: Mississippi, Arizona and Illinois, will add 133 percent, 77 percent and 66 percent respectively of new gas turbine plant capacity, Figure 2. In 2001, Texas (9,220 MW), California (3,110 MW) and New England (3,059 MW) are expected to be the most active states for new gas turbine capacity. A major factor in the booming market for new gas turbine based capacity has been the stable and relatively low natural gas prices. However, even with the increase in natural gas prices in 2000 the market for new gas turbine plants continues to grow. Some of the reasons given for the continued interest in gas fired turbines include: Easier siting and permitting Availability of financing Shorter construction time for simple-cycle applications Lower emissions and increased efficiency. Since the early 1990s, gas turbine manufacturers, aided by government funded research and development, have made substantial improvements in gas turbine technology. These improvements have resulted in lower costs of manufacturing, improved fuel efficiencies and increased reliability. Buyers and Sellers Click here to enlarge image By far the number one developer of gas turbine power plants is Calpine, with Duke Energy, Panda and Southern Energy all fighting for second place, Figure 3. The top 10 developers will account for 45 percent (136,580 MW) of the total gas turbine capacity expected to be in operation by 2007. Calpine Corporation, the fastest growing independent power company in the U.S., plans to be the largest electric generator in North America by 2005. According to Peter Cartwright, Chairman, President and CEO of Calpine, the goal is to have 60,000 MW of base load capacity and 10,000 MW of peaking capacity by 2005. In 1995, Calpine's total capacity was a relatively small 268 MW. Founded in 1984, Calpine currently has 5,900 MW in operation and 14,000 MW under construction. Recently the company announced a further 16,200 MW of new projects. Currently the company has a $15 billion construction program. In April 2001, GE Power Systems received a firm order from Calpine for 35 model 7FB and 11 model 7FA gas-fired turbines. The schedule calls for the delivery of five gas turbines in 2002 with the remaining 30 units being delivered in 2005. With this latest order, Calpine now has firm orders for 203 gas turbines, all scheduled for delivery between now and 2005. According to Ron Walter, Calpine Vice President for Planning and Development, the orders for the 203 gas turbines is split evenly between GE Power Systems and Siemens Westinghouse. The decision to go with these vendors was price, performance and lifetime reliability of the equipment, says Walters. Can the Vendors Meet Delivery Schedules? The predominant gas turbines being ordered are the "F" and "G" classes manufactured by GE Power System, Siemens-Westinghouse, Alstom and Mitsubishi. Initially, the gas turbine buyers were skeptical about the suppliers being able to meet the delivery schedules. However, their fears have not been warranted. According to Gary Townsend, Director of Proposals, Black & Veatch, the gas turbine manufacturers have met all delivery schedules. In some instances the deliveries has been ahead of schedule, says Townsend. At this time, all of the available manufacturing capacity for 60 Hz gas turbines is committed through 2005. Because of this, it is very difficult to order a gas turbine for delivery before late 2005 or early 2006. However, many people involved in developing gas turbine power plants say that the probability of all of the projects being constructed is highly unlikely. Even if they are constructed, commercial operation of some plants will be after 2006. In order to meet the large increase in orders for gas turbines the vendors have streamlined the production and manufacture of gas turbines. Companies like GE Power Systems launched rigorous campaigns to audit major suppliers to ensure that they are able to meet the increased volume. In addition to existing vendors, GE has also begun qualifying new vendors who are able to meet the accelerated delivery schedules. Many of the gas turbine vendors have also re-engineered manufacturing to reduce the cost and time to build the units. Using their "Six Sigma Quality Initiative" program, GE has been able to increase productivity at their Greenville, SC gas turbine plant. Re-engineering of the manufacturing process at Greenville has reduced cycle time by 29 percent. Because of this GE Power Systems were able to ship 392 gas turbine units in 2000, a 112 percent increase over 1999. With re-engineering, GE has increased the Greenville's manufacturing capacity by more than 200 percent. Click here to enlarge image According to Siemens Westinghouse, the company has orders for more than 400 gas turbines. Through 2003, approximately 95 percent of the backlog is secured through contract cancellation clauses, Figure 4. By December 2003, the combined manufacturing capacity of Siemens Westinghouse's German and Canadian facilities will have increased 250 percent MW in terms of MW output. Although Siemens has some free capacity it is predominantly for 60 Mz machines. Technology Updates Siemens Westinghouse Power Corporation's W501F gas turbine, first introduced in 1990, was originally rated at 180 MW. However, recent improvements to the last row turbine blade has increased the maximum power capability to 215 MW, a 16 percent increase over the 1990 model. In the middle of 2000, the first upgraded units were shipped. Evolutionary enhancements over the last 10 years have improved the efficiency of the W501F gas turbine by 6 percent and reduced NOx emissions by 67 percent. These improvement have come from increasing the compressor's first and second stage outer diameters, developing a new dry low NOx combustor, and upgrading the turbine's seals, vane cooling and the last row turbine blades. Designed for simple-cycle or combined-cycle operation the gas turbine can operate on all conventional gas turbine fuels. GE Power Systems, Mitsubishi and Siemens Westinghouse have all developed steam cooling systems for the hot gas section of their gas turbines. Steam cooling will be used by GE Power Systems on the advanced "H" gas turbines while Mitsubishi plans to use it on their M501G/M701G turbines. Siemens Westinghouse's W501G gas turbine will use steam cooling. Click here to enlarge image Steam cooling will not only allow firing temperatures up to 2,600 F, it will mean a combined-cycle efficiency of over 60 percent. Although the steam cooled gas turbines operate at high firing temperatures the manufacturers say they are able to use conventional materials. According to Siemens Westinghouse, steam cooling allows their gas turbines to operate at higher rotor inlet temperatures while maintaining the same burner outlet temperature as conventional machines. In May of this year, Siemens Westinghouse Power Corporation announced the commercial operation of the 360 MW combined-cycle Millennium plant in Charlton, Massachusetts and the 249 MW McIntosh simple-cycle power plant in Florida. The McIntosh plant will eventually be converted to combined-cycle operation. Both plants use the W501G gas turbine, which according to the manufacturers is the largest 60 Hz gas turbine in the world. With the increased capacity and efficiency of gas turbines, the market for single shaft combined-cycle plants is expected to increase. Installation of the gas and steam turbines on a common shaft enables the plant to operate with a single generator. In addition, the turbines share lubricating and governing systems and have a smaller footprint. Although Asia has been the leader in the installation of single-shaft combined-cycle power plants, there has been some action in North America, says Alexander Leyzerovich, a consultant to the electric power industry. In Massachusetts, two single-shaft combined-cycle plants have been constructed. These are the 270 MW Agawam plant and the 4x260 MW Midlothian plant. In upstate New York, two 400 MW single shaft combined-cycle units, using GE Power Systems' 7H gas turbines, are also under construction. According to GE Power Systems, the first unit is expected to enter commercial operation in 2003-2004. With shortened construction schedules, lower life-cycle costs, lower emissions, increased efficiency and flexibility, and the need to add capacity, the market for gas turbines looks promising. Although for the foreseeable future the need for new capacity in California and the Northeast will continue, Black & Veatch's Townsend believes that the average reserve margins for the rest of the country will increase to 30 percent by 2003. Even with a slowdown of the market after 2003, there will still be a need to add 20-25 GW/yr of capacity, says Townsend. Power Engineering June, 2001 Author(s) : Douglas Smith NEW FROM PENNENERGY |
| mib - Samstag, 7. Juli 2001 - 20:57 |
| link zum obigen Artikel: http://pe.pennwellnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&SubSection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=104633&VERSION_NUM=1 |
| j_r_ewing - Dienstag, 10. Juli 2001 - 14:50 |
| Der Irak will in paar Tagen im Rahmen des Programms "Öl gegen Nahrungsmittel" (oder so) den Ölexport wieder aufnehmen, für 150 Tage. [ARD-Videotext] |
| mib - Dienstag, 10. Juli 2001 - 17:10 |
| die Tanker brauchen aber ungefaehr 4 Wochen, um in USa anzukommen und die refinereies arbeiten nahe an ihrer Kapazitaetsgrenze. |