| mib - Mittwoch, 7. März 2001 - 01:52 |
| Quartalszahlen und Jahresabschluss von Edge Petroleum, EPEX. Hohes Gewinnwachstum, hoher Ansteig der nachgewiesenen Reserven und EPEX ist praktisch schuldenfrei. EPEX ist ein spekulatives Investment wie alle kleinen E&P companies aber hervorragend positioniert. Bis Jahresende solten wir hier noch deutlich! hoehere Kurse sehen... http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010302/daf007_2.html |
| mib - Samstag, 17. März 2001 - 18:03 |
| neues zum Erdgas: http://www.raymondjames.com/ecm/energy/natgas/010315.pdf |
| mib - Dienstag, 24. April 2001 - 03:28 |
| COMPANY STORE | LOGIN | HELP| INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR MAGAZINE | AMERICA'S FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES™ INDEX Home Stocks Boards News Portfolios Magic 25 Education Tools Archives Search Go! Ticker Symbol Search Insiders with Edge Tell us what you think in EPEX's Board http://www.individualinvestor.com By Alexander Yakirevich (4/12/01) Edge Petroleum (NASDAQ: EPEX - Quotes, News, Boards) , a developer and producer of oil and natural gas, recently caught our attention as two of the company's directors acquired 17,000 shares last month at average prices ranging from $6.50 to $8.21. The stock closed Wednesday at $7.70. There are several factors that could explain recent interest in the stock on the part of insiders. From the macro perspective, the outlook for the oil and gas industry continues to be strong, especially after the arrival of the new, oil-and-gas-friendly administration in Washington. At the micro level, investors should expect Edge, which had 85% of its proven reserves at the end of last year tied to natural gas, to raise the level of its exploration activity in coming months. The ultimate goal is to significantly expand the current base of reserves. In turn, greater reserves should provide a solid foundation for achieving sizeable gains in production in 2002. The objectives are quite ambitious. The company, which operates primarily in Texas and Lousiana, plans to commence drilling 24 to 31 wells this year. In a best-case scenario -- where Edge hits the jackpot on all those new wells - the company could increase its total reserve potential anywhere from 95Bcfe (Billion cubic feet equivalent) to 175Bcfe. While most new wells targeted for development are shallow-drilling projects with high probabilities of success (80% to 90%), deep-drilling, high-pressure wells are the ones that likely be the principal drivers of growth for Edge. These higher-risk properties take longer time to develop and have a much lower probability of success, only 15% to 20%. "Our take on this massive reserve exposure is that investors should view the high potential exploratory program [as] a form of a call type optionality embedded in the stock, suggesting that if only one of these prospects is successful the reserve/production impact should be significant," wrote Dain Rauscher Wessels' analyst, Raymond J. Deacon, in his recent report. Translated into English, that means this roll of the dice could produce some big returns. According to Edge's CFO, Michael G. Long, the more reasonable target for proven reserves in 2001 will probably be in the range of 41Bcfe to 47Bcfe, or 75% to 100% above the levels observed at the end of last year. With respect to higher-risk deep-drilling projects, it is worth noting that the company traditionally partnered with larger players, such as Texaco (NYSE: TX - Quotes, News, Boards) . This cooperation represents one of Edge's most attractive characteristics, according to Wayne W. Andrews, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates. The analyst notes that while maintaining fairly large working (ownership) interest (20% to 30%) in a particular high-risk property, the company is able to shift the bulk of capital spending on this project to its well-funded partners, thereby significantly reducing risk. To fund its exploration program for 2001, Edge boosted its capital spending by 117%, to $23.6 million. More importantly, the largest component of the budget dedicated to drilling and well preparation activities rose to $14.1 million from roughly $7 million to $8 million last year. The company is well positioned to fulfill these capital requirements internally, as its operating cash flow is expected to grow by 115% this year, to approximately $23 million. Besides its cash-flow generating power, Edge has access to $14 million in bank revolving credit, which should enhance the company's flexibility even further, potentially enabling it to exceed the targeted rate of growth in proven reserves. Based on the consensus estimate published by Thomson Financial/First Call, the Street expects Edge to deliver earnings of $1.67 per share this year, which means that the stock is currently valued at less than five times the 2001 earnings estimate. Given the fact that the company will be facing favorable comparisons in coming quarters, an argument could be made that the shares are priced at a discount to the company's growth prospects in the next few years. Achieving the milestones set for this year with respect to growth in reserves is likely to push the stock to higher ground. According to Raymond James & Associates' Andrews, the stock may advance to as high as $13 in the next 12 months, which would represent a nearly 70% gain from present levels. Bottom Line: A favorable outlook for the oil and natural gas industry, a pro-energy administration in the White House, an ambitious expansion plan, and attractive valuation all make shares of Edge Petroleum worthy of investors' consideration. We rate the stock a "buy" at present levels. |
| mib - Mittwoch, 2. Mai 2001 - 18:57 |
| die erwartet guten Zahlen von EPEX: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010502/daw017.html Mib |
| mib - Mittwoch, 2. Mai 2001 - 19:00 |
| EPEX ist ein "strong buy aggressive"!!! Die heutigen -10% haben nichts mit den EPEX-Zahlen zu tun, sondern mit den API und AGA Zahlen ueber die Bevorratung von Oel und Gas. Zahlen in kurzer Form und Klartext: Wednesday May 2, 11:51 am Eastern Time Edge Petroleum Q1 profits rise, raises forecasts HOUSTON, May 2 (Reuters) - Edge Petroleum Corp. (NasdaqNM:EPEX - news) on Wednesday reported a surge in profits in the first quarter, driven by successful drilling and high commodity prices, and the company increased its earnings estimates for the second quarter and full year. Houston-based Edge, which combines specialized software and 3-D data analysis to find petroleum deposits, said first-quarter profits reached $6.5 million, or 67 cents a share, from $359,271, or 4 cents, in the same period last year. Oil and natural gas revenues more than tripled in the first quarter to $11.5 million from $3.8 million in the year ago. Production volumes for natural gas increased 47 percent from last year, as oil volumes remained essentially flat. As a result of strong first-quarter results and updated forecasts and tax planning, Edge raised its profit estimate for the second quarter to 35 cents from 30 cent per basic share, and for 2001, it sees earnings of $1.65, up from $1.55. Capital spending in the quarter reached about $2.6 million, ``significantly'' below projections, due primarily to drilling delays at five wells, but the spending forecast for the year remains at $21.6 million, the company said. |
| mib - Mittwoch, 9. Mai 2001 - 15:19 |
| Ich stell mal ein posting aus dem Yahoo EPEX board hier rein. Es beschreibt kurz und sachlich die Situation bei EPEX. Sollten heute die AGA Zahlen wieder hohe Zunahmen der Erdgas-Vorraete ausweisen, dann werden die NG Aktien wieder unter Druck geraten. Ich halte EPEX-Kurse von unter 10 U$ mittelfristig fuer eindeutige Kaufkurse, aber es koennte sein, dass wir wieder die 6.xx sehen. Wer dann nicht kauft, dem ist nicht zu helfen (ich werde bei 7.50 U$ wahrscheinlich! etwas nachkaufen)! Solange keine Nachrichten ueber "trockene" Bohrungen kommen, ist EPEX eine ganz starke Investition (als Explorationsfirma aber natuerlich spekulativer als eine Produktionsfirma!). Gruss - Mib ################# edgeman8524 by: bcorrea73703 (44/M/Oklahoma) 05/09/01 02:08 am EDT Msg: 2837 of 2839 I ignored your first lies about EPEX deceiving shareholders, but now that you want to continue, let me tell you a few things. First, you are a total dumbass if you can't read an earnings report and guidance and listen to conference calls. EPEX beat their guidance, which if you were paying attention, was based on the basic share count, untaxed, pre-FIN 44. Their eps estimate was $.68 to $.72. On this basis, actuals came in at $.73. Plus, there was a $.01 cost for option repurchase (i.e., "same" as share buyback). The CF estimates was for $.79 to $.83. They blew this away at $1.01. Finally, guidance was raised going forward. The full-year eps of $1.55 to $1.65 is after $.25 to $.30 taxes. Without taxes, this would be in the range of $1.80 to $1.95, compared to previous guidance of $1.78 to $1.88. New CF estimate is $2.60 to $2.70, an increase of $.05 over previous guidance. Lastly, production exceeded guidance. I can't find one result which was below guidance. As a final note, future results are totally unpredictable due to price volatility among other things, so don't expect E&P management to always hit their guidance. These companies would be better off only giving production and cost guidance and letting analysts estimate eps, especially if they're unhedged. As stated numerous times, the most important thing for EPEX is significant reserve growth and decent production growth. If they are successful in these regards, pricing and eps is relatively less important (as opposed to companies with slow growing reserves and production). Growth can overcome price declines. |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 6. Juni 2001 - 15:47 |
| mib, ich war drauf und dran, die Edge P. zu kaufen, als ich auf eine Erscheinung stieß, die mich doch sehr irritierte: bei den Yahoo-Gewinnschätzungen steht EPEX für '02 mit 1,32 nach 1,65, also eine Abnahme um 32%. Könnte es sein, daß da irgendwo ein Pferdefuß lauert? eine ao-Sache vielleicht; oder wie erklärst Du Dir das? Gruß JR |
| mib - Mittwoch, 6. Juni 2001 - 16:18 |
| du kannst dir ALLE Gewinnschaetzungen fuer oil & nat. gas E&P companies ansehen und wirst feststellen, dass die Gewinnerwartungen fuer 2002 deutlich unter denen fuer 2001 liegen. Das "Problem" ist hier, dass die Analysten bei diesen Abschaetzungen immer von den Erwartungen der eigenen commodities research Abteilungen ausgehen. Und die hatten fuer 2001 z.B. Rohoelpreise im Bereich von 19 - 21 U$ und NG Preise von ca. 3 U$ angenommen. Wir liegen bisher aber DEUTLICH darueber, was bedeutet, dass die Gewinne bisher nur so sprudeln!!!! FTO z.B. (refiner) hat gestern angekuendigt, dass sie in 2001statt der erwarteten 2 U$ stattliche 4 U$ machen werden!!!!! Fuer 2002 gehen die analysten nun noch konservativer zu Werke und nehmen nochmals niedrigere Oel- und Gaspreise an. Dem stimme ich Ahnungsloser in der Grundtendenz zu, - aber wir gehen von einem viel hoeheren level aus, als erwartet. Da wegen der nachlassenden Wirtschaft die Nachfrage sinkt und das Wetter bisher unnatuerlich kalt ist (keine air cons an!), sind die Mengen, die in die Speicher gehen hoch, und (besonders die Gas) Preise unter Druck geraten. Also sinken die Aktienkurse in der ganzen Branche. Im Juli/August wird der Gaspreis wieder viel hoeher sein und dementsprechend auch die Kurse. Eine weitere Belastung sind zur Zeit, die politischen Umwaelzungen. Ein Rep. Senator ist im Prinzip ins Lager der Demokaraten gewechselt, die im Senat jetzt weas zu sagen haben. Man spekuliert, dass die eine etwas andere Energiepolitik durchsetzen wollen. Wichtig ist bei den Unternehmen aber vor allem, dass ihre Gewinnsteigerungen nicht nur durch steigende Oel- und Gaspreise sondern durch steigenede PRODUKTION verursacht werden. Und da sieht es bei EPEX eben sehr verheissungsvoll aus. Ich lauere auf Preise unter 7 U$, um dann zuzuschlagen! Sollte aber EPEX eine news ueber eine erfolgreiche Bohrung rauslassen, dann bin ich gekniffen und der Kurs saust ohne mich nach oben. Mal sehen, was ich mache. |
| j_r_ewing - Mittwoch, 6. Juni 2001 - 16:37 |
| Danke für Deine ausführliche Stellungnahme ! Ich möchte anregen, daß Du solche branchenweiten Informationen - damit sie nicht nur mir zugute kommen, oder allgemeiner gesagt: von den Interessenten EINER Firma gelesen werden - in einen extra Branchen-Thread setzt! Was meinst Du? Gruß JR (Das sollte ich mal an ALLE posten...) |
| j_r_ewing - Freitag, 22. Juni 2001 - 21:51 |
| (Siehe Thread Energieaktien !) Chart EPEX : EPEX: Der Kurzfrist-Chart ist kaputt. Längerfristige Unt. ist bei 5 / 4 $ Man könnte zwar, gestützt auf Mai und August '00 , einen / sehen, aber auch nur linear (und die beiden Stützpunkte sind relativ eng beieinander). Im logar. Chart ist eine einzige ganz klare / seit Mai 00 da, und die ist schon lange kaputt. Hier kann man also nur auf die _ (s.o.) setzen. http://bigcharts.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EPEX&time=8&freq=1 Gruß JR |