|chinaman - Freitag, 6. Oktober 2000 - 01:52|
| Der Individualinvestor empfiehlt aus dem Halbleiterbereich Nanometrics. Was mib wohl von denen hält ??? |
Bid & Ask: A Total Bargain in the World of Semis
By Tom Byrne (10/3/00)
(Talk to Tom in his new 'Tom's Bid & Ask' message board.)
Nanometrics (NASDAQ: NANO - Quotes, News, Boards) is not a household name. But listen to its client list: IBM, Hitachi, Motorola Applied Materials, Sony and Texas Instruments. These giant companies have sought Nanometrics to supply them with metrology systems that are used to make computer chips.
Last year, this was a penny stock, flirting with a stock price of $5. Today, the stock is $50 and for good reason -- EARNINGS.
For its second quarter, total revenue was $18.3 million, an increase of 143% over the second quarter of 1999. Operating income soared to $4.2 million, up from $395,000 a year ago. Net income was $3.5 million, or $0.28 per share, compared to a net income of $304,000, or $0.03 per share, for the same period last year.
Earnings of $0.28 per share clobbered expectations of $0.23 per share. The highest estimate was $0.27 per share, so Nanometrics had what I like to call a blowout quarter. Gross profit margins improved to 60%, up from 55% last year. Cash flow from operations improved 19% to $4.3 million for the first six months of the year.
Income and cash flow are only two-thirds of the financial picture. Nanometrics also has a rock-solid balance sheet. It has $96 million in cash and short-term investments. The current ratio is 13-to-1, and it has only $2 million in long term debt, which it could easily dissolve with one payment from its ample cash supply.
Nanometrics has been crushing estimates. It has beat estimates for eight straight quarters, which means that the 2000 and 2001 forecasts are probably too low. Analysts are looking for Nanometrics to earn $1.08 per share this year and $1.49 per share next year. You can probably add $0.10 per share to each of those figures.
Nanometrics is growing like a weed, which has caused it pay $35 million to increase its manufacturing facility by 300%. The remodeling of the facility is underway with completion scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2000.
Nanometrics is going to need the space, because the industries it serves are booming. Dataquest, an independent industry research company, estimates that worldwide semiconductor sales will increase to approximately $251 billion in 2002 from $136 billion in 1998, representing a compound annual growth rate of 17%.
To keep pace with the demand, capital equipment spending by semiconductor manufacturers is estimated to reach $75 billion in 2002, up from $30 billion in 1998, representing a compound annual growth rate of 26%. Similarly, according to Stanford Resources, a display market research firm, the flat panel display market is expected to grow to $26 billion in 2004 from $14 billion in 1998, representing a compound annual growth rate of 11%.
Manufacturers of semiconductors, flat panel displays and magnetic recording heads are experiencing several trends that are increasing the need for thin film metrology systems including the growing use of Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP). Manufacturers are adopting CMP to flatten, or planarize, thin films to obtain the ultra-flat surfaces required for advanced photolithography. Nanometrics is a leading player in CMP technology.
Manufacturers are quickly adopting new processes and technologies that increase the importance and utilization of thin film metrology systems. To achieve greater semiconductor device speed, manufacturers are using copper and new insulating materials that require enhanced metrology solutions for the manufacturing process.
Nanometrics is on the cutting edge of thin film technology. Each thin film thickness measurement system is equipped with computerized readout capability for measurement, visualization and control of film uniformity. In addition, Nanometrics has developed new automated systems and tabletop products for emerging technologies using larger substrates such as 300-millimeter wafers and larger flat panel displays.
Semiconductors are becoming more complex as they operate at faster speeds with smaller feature sizes. Next-generation chips employ larger dies that contain more transistors and utilize increasing numbers of manufacturing process steps.
Competitive forces on semiconductor device manufacturers, such as price cutting and shorter product life cycles, place pressure on the manufacturers to rapidly achieve production efficiency. Semiconductor device manufacturers are using metrology systems from Nanometrics throughout the fab to ensure that manufacturing processes scale rapidly, are accurate and can be repeated on a consistent basis.
At $50, Nanometrics is trading at 31.4 times my 2001 estimate of $1.59 per share. That's less than half its growth rate, which makes the stock look pretty cheap at these levels.
|mib - Freitag, 6. Oktober 2000 - 05:10|
| find ich persoenlich zu teuer ... |
schau mir da lieber ISSI, LTXX, NVLS, CMOS oder die Titel im Auslandsdepot an
|chinaman - Freitag, 6. Oktober 2000 - 12:11|
| Danke für Deine prägnante Einschätzung, mib ! |
|mib - Donnerstag, 22. Februar 2001 - 04:15|
|nachdem NANO mittlerweile bei ca. 15 $ notiert (nach ca. 50 $ Anfang Okt. 2000!) sind sie jetzt wieder interessant. Definitiv einer der besseren chip-equipment Titel!|